TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058241
Played Sep 1Finished
Michal Durda
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11513119111210––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:56 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Durda above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Michal Durda at 61.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Michal Durda 6–2 Sebastian Szostok Sebastian Szostok has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Durda
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Durda 1596 vs Szostok 1419
Durda
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durda 80% vs Szostok 40%
Durda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durda 70% vs Szostok 40%
Durda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durda +1 · Szostok +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurda 1.61 / Szostok 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Durda)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13058241
Durda1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite78% won 171 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it98% 84 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it92% 119 of 129
Szostok2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 76 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDurda6wins
AwaySzostok2wins
8 of 8 to a deciderDurda leads 6–2, and 8 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDurda66.7%2 of 3
AwaySzostok20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Durda3Szostok5n = 8Szostok took 5 of 8
S2Durda5Szostok3n = 8Durda took 5 of 8
S3Durda6Szostok2n = 8Durda took 6 of 8
S4Durda2Szostok6n = 8Szostok took 6 of 8
S5Durda6Szostok2n = 8Durda took 6 of 8
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home675%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricDurdaSzostokD − SBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match47.944.8+3.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurdaSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 236 vs 928 / 156378%59.4%184 / 236 vs 928 / 1563Avg sets wonper match2.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaDurda 1.61/Szostok 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 20 · 15:30M. Durda—1114116113S. Szostok—81641142
WAug 20 · 09:30M. Durda—911117123S. Szostok—119311102
WJul 24 · 13:30M. Durda—991115113S. Szostok—111141392
LJul 24 · 07:20M. Durda—511116112S. Szostok—117311133
WJul 14 · 12:15M. Durda—117711113S. Szostok—71111922
WJul 14 · 08:35M. Durda—811114113S. Szostok—11971192
WJun 28 · 14:40M. Durda—611165113S. Szostok—113141162
LJun 28 · 06:05M. Durda—11114862S. Szostok—761111113
M. Durda10
WSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113WSep 2 · 01:00I. Szymanski7.5013109121M. Durda1.07111211143WSep 2 · 24:10M. Durda1.281212123K. Schaniel3.501010100WSep 1 · 21:45O. Jadach2.507840M. Durda1.441111113LSep 1 · 20:30M. Durda1.146149101K. Schaniel5.00111211123WSep 1 · 18:55M. Durda1.061317113I. Szymanski8.00111570WSep 1 · 17:45M. Durda1.911112113O. Jadach1.8091080WSep 1 · 16:15M. Durda1.20111111113G. Marud4.33313691WSep 1 · 15:00M. Durda1.57511911113S. Szostok2.2511911642WAug 24 · 16:40W. Buczynski5.9071112101M. Durda1.0911614123
S. Szostok10
LSep 7 · 08:45P. Mecik3.4011811113S. Szostok1.28811891WSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571WSep 5 · 13:05S. Szostok2.2011311113P. Jedrzejak1.611111351LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok1.837640J. Wieczerzak1.831111113WSep 5 · 10:10S. Szostok1.9111611113Z. Sobkow1.80511631LSep 5 · 09:00S. Szostok2.109911101W. Wojtaszczyk1.6711115123WSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113LSep 1 · 15:00M. Durda1.57511911113S. Szostok2.2511911642
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