TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065190
Played Sep 3Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1121412116––––
Igor Szymanski
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Igor Szymanski below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 78.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 10–2 Igor Szymanski Igor Szymanski has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Kurek
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1375 vs Szymanski 1172
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 203 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Szymanski 20%
Kurek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 60% vs Szymanski 10%
Kurek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -2 · Szymanski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Kurek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.30 / Szymanski 3.40
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Kurek)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13065190
Kurek1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 194 of 294
Up 2–0, closes it94% 95 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it85% 139 of 164
Szymanski3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog22% won 74 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back11% 25 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek8wins
AwaySzymanski2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek83.3%5 of 6
AwaySzymanski25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek6Szymanski4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S2Kurek7Szymanski3n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S3Kurek7Szymanski3n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Kurek3Szymanski4n = 7Szymanski took 4 of 7
S5Kurek4Szymanski1n = 5Kurek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekSzymanskiK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.233.0+8.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekSzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 729 vs 83 / 36349.8%22.9%363 / 729 vs 83 / 363Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.433.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.30/Szymanski 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 04:30P. Kurek—1114113I. Szymanski—21260
WJul 24 · 13:55P. Kurek—111165113I. Szymanski—88111182
WJul 24 · 04:10P. Kurek—91411113I. Szymanski—1112761
WJul 21 · 14:20P. Kurek—117611113I. Szymanski—21111742
LJul 21 · 03:00P. Kurek—11119592I. Szymanski—461111113
WJul 13 · 12:15P. Kurek—361111113I. Szymanski—11113142
WJul 13 · 08:35P. Kurek—1111113I. Szymanski—9880
WJul 3 · 17:45P. Kurek—10111111113I. Szymanski—12161332
WJul 2 · 12:15P. Kurek—1111113I. Szymanski—8460
LJul 2 · 08:35P. Kurek—771191I. Szymanski—11119113
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662
I. Szymanski10
LSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113LSep 3 · 12:40I. Szymanski3.407890O. Vincenec1.301111113WSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:10P. Kurek1.28681111123I. Szymanski3.50111167102LSep 3 · 09:25I. Szymanski3.0081111962M. Sikon1.36118911113LSep 3 · 08:10O. Vincenec1.2871111113I. Szymanski3.50119881LSep 3 · 07:20M. Sikon1.4411119113I. Szymanski2.63541131WSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 03:00R. Gajda1.256111110113I. Szymanski3.7511131282WSep 2 · 02:35I. Szymanski2.631112113K. Schaniel1.4461090
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