TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084380
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611121412101191012
Valeriy Melnik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 107 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 58.5%
107 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 1–0 Valeriy Melnik Valeriy Melnik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1680 vs Melnik 1696
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 100% vs Melnik 60%
Neborak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 70% vs Melnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +5 · Melnik -1
Neborak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.38 / Melnik 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Melnik)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084380
Neborak2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 331
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 122
Melnik1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 140 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it99% 77 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it81% 109 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNeborak1wins
AwayMelnik0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderNeborak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNeborakMelnikN − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match50.044.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 839 vs 394 / 70636.1%55.8%303 / 839 vs 394 / 706Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikNeborak 2.38/Melnik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 22 · 18:25D. Neborak—712119113V. Melnik—111091132
D. Neborak10
WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161
V. Melnik10
LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931WSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik1.831115111282R. Cherevko1.83917914113WSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.75115631V. Melnik1.4071111113WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik1.361111123R. Reznychenko3.0064100LAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
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