TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084154
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911121011694––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched — 81.1% is still 81.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Neborak to win
81.1%
81.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-4
Point 72 set 4, 9-4 — our read held Dmytro Neborak at 81.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 2–0 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Neborak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1673 vs Reznychenko 1533
Neborak
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 60% vs Reznychenko 20%
Neborak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 40% vs Reznychenko 20%
Neborak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +2 · Reznychenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Neborak) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 1.36 / Reznychenko 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Neborak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084154
Neborak1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 38 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Reznychenko3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 96 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNeborak2wins
AwayReznychenko0wins
Neborak leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNeborakReznychenkoN − RBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.020.0+13.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 834 vs 238 / 72635.9%32.8%299 / 834 vs 238 / 726Avg sets wonper match1.71.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.533.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeborakNeborak 1.36/Reznychenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Neborak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 23 · 13:25D. Neborak—1111113R. Reznychenko—6960
WAug 22 · 15:25D. Neborak—1111113R. Reznychenko—9640
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LSep 5 · 04:25R. Reznychenko2.5010850R. Cherevko1.501211113
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