TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084236
Played Sep 6Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
91111843––––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-3
Point 46 set 3, 4-3 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 68.5%
46 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 149–78 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 78 of their 227 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
149-78 in 227
Melnik
Correct
gap of 71 in 227, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1685 vs Reznychenko 1531
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Reznychenko 20%
Melnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 60% vs Reznychenko 10%
Melnik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Reznychenko -4
Reznychenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.36 / Reznychenko 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Melnik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084236
Melnik1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 140 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it99% 77 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it81% 109 of 134
Reznychenko3.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 96 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik7wins
AwayReznychenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayReznychenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik6Reznychenko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S2Melnik7Reznychenko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Melnik9Reznychenko1n = 10Melnik took 9 of 10
S4Melnik3Reznychenko2n = 5Melnik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikReznychenkoM − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.030.3+7.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 706 vs 236 / 72355.5%32.6%392 / 706 vs 236 / 723Avg sets wonper match2.11.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.833.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.36/Reznychenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik—1111123R. Reznychenko—64100
LAug 29 · 18:25V. Melnik—7614101R. Reznychenko—111112123
WAug 28 · 23:55V. Melnik—1111113R. Reznychenko—5870
LAug 23 · 17:25V. Melnik—1291211112R. Reznychenko—1011146133
WAug 22 · 17:25V. Melnik—1111113R. Reznychenko—3920
WAug 22 · 24:55V. Melnik—61114113R. Reznychenko—1121271
LAug 15 · 17:25V. Melnik—1071181R. Reznychenko—12116113
WAug 15 · 24:55V. Melnik—1111113R. Reznychenko—9980
WAug 9 · 17:25V. Melnik—1111113R. Reznychenko—1760
WAug 8 · 19:25V. Melnik—91211123R. Reznychenko—11106101
V. Melnik10
WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931WSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik1.831115111282R. Cherevko1.83917914113WSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.75115631V. Melnik1.4071111113WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik1.361111123R. Reznychenko3.0064100LAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik1.361111123R. Reznychenko3.0064100
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