TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078949
Played Sep 5Finished
Roman Reznychenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11911991110121210
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvgeniy Pismenniy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Reznychenko above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 104 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Evgeniy Pismenniy at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Roman Reznychenko 99–116 Evgeniy Pismenniy Roman Reznychenko has won 99 of their 215 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pismenniy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
99-116 in 215
Pismenniy
Wrong
gap of 17 in 215, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reznychenko 1533 vs Pismenniy 1527
Reznychenko
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reznychenko 0% vs Pismenniy 20%
Pismenniy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reznychenko 30% vs Pismenniy 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reznychenko -5 · Pismenniy -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Reznychenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReznychenko 1.91 / Pismenniy 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Reznychenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13078949
Reznychenko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 95 of 292
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 119
Pismenniy1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 37 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 30 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReznychenko4wins
AwayPismenniy6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderPismenniy leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReznychenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayPismenniy71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reznychenko3Pismenniy7n = 10Pismenniy took 7 of 10
S2Reznychenko6Pismenniy4n = 10Reznychenko took 6 of 10
S3Reznychenko4Pismenniy6n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S4Reznychenko3Pismenniy6n = 9Pismenniy took 6 of 9
S5Reznychenko4Pismenniy3n = 7Reznychenko took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReznychenkoPismenniyR − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match44.146.8−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReznychenkoPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 726 vs 213 / 71432.8%29.8%238 / 726 vs 213 / 714Avg sets wonper match1.41.6per matchAvg pointsper match33.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReznychenkoReznychenko 1.91/Pismenniy 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Reznychenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 19:55R. Reznychenko—1281116123E. Pismenniy—1011918102
LAug 15 · 02:55R. Reznychenko—511811112E. Pismenniy—118118133
WAug 9 · 13:25R. Reznychenko—711911113E. Pismenniy—11911682
LAug 8 · 17:55R. Reznychenko—6750E. Pismenniy—1111113
LAug 8 · 04:25R. Reznychenko—61111952E. Pismenniy—118611113
LAug 2 · 13:25R. Reznychenko—3121151E. Pismenniy—111013113
WAug 1 · 19:55R. Reznychenko—176911113E. Pismenniy—151111972
WAug 1 · 04:25R. Reznychenko—9111111113E. Pismenniy—11451352
LJul 26 · 13:25R. Reznychenko—1611106112E. Pismenniy—1441211133
LJul 26 · 01:25R. Reznychenko—8101251E. Pismenniy—111210113
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LSep 5 · 04:25R. Reznychenko2.5010850R. Cherevko1.501211113
E. Pismenniy10
WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950LSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:55Y. Masko1.44121111103E. Pismenniy2.631013971LSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870
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