TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079186
Played Sep 5Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1121210118––––
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Neborak to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Dmytro Neborak at 71.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 2–1 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:31What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Neborak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1664 vs Pismenniy 1537
Neborak
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 40% vs Pismenniy 0%
Neborak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 30% vs Pismenniy 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +1 · Pismenniy -5
Pismenniy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Neborak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (0%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 1.36 / Pismenniy 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Neborak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079186
Neborak1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 36 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Pismenniy3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back7% 11 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeNeborak2wins
AwayPismenniy1wins
Neborak leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak2Pismenniy1n = 3Neborak took 2 of 3
S2Neborak2Pismenniy1n = 3Neborak took 2 of 3
S3Neborak2Pismenniy1n = 3Neborak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricNeborakPismenniyN − PBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.031.7+6.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 833 vs 213 / 71335.8%29.9%298 / 833 vs 213 / 713Avg sets wonper match1.71.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeborakNeborak 1.36/Pismenniy 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Neborak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WFeb 22 · 11:00D. Neborak—1115113E. Pismenniy—81360
LFeb 21 · 12:20D. Neborak—1112881E. Pismenniy—41411113
WFeb 20 · 21:20D. Neborak—51111113E. Pismenniy—118181
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161
E. Pismenniy10
WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950LSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:55Y. Masko1.44121111103E. Pismenniy2.631013971LSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870
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