TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13085191
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114116117––––
Yevhen Masko
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:18 and never touched — 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timeYevhen Masko to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Yevhen Masko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Yevhen Masko at 73.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 10–14 Yevhen Masko Dmytro Neborak has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Masko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Masko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1667 vs Masko 1720
Masko
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 80% vs Masko 40%
Neborak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 60% vs Masko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +4 · Masko +1
Neborak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Masko) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Masko form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 3.25 / Masko 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Masko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13085191
Neborak3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 331
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 122
Masko1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 142 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it99% 85 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it90% 114 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak4wins
AwayMasko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMasko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak75%3 of 4
AwayMasko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak4Masko6n = 10Masko took 6 of 10
S2Neborak3Masko7n = 10Masko took 7 of 10
S3Neborak4Masko6n = 10Masko took 6 of 10
S4Neborak2Masko5n = 7Masko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakMaskoN − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.738.4−4.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakMaskoBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 836 vs 431 / 74936%57.5%301 / 836 vs 431 / 749Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaskoNeborak 3.25/Masko 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.3%
Masko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 18:25D. Neborak—111188103Y. Masko—88111122
LAug 23 · 14:55D. Neborak—117281Y. Masko—81111113
WAug 22 · 16:25D. Neborak—11119113Y. Masko—991161
LJun 13 · 06:50D. Neborak—11880Y. Masko—1311113
WJun 12 · 15:20D. Neborak—16511113Y. Masko—1411961
LApr 25 · 06:20D. Neborak—561171Y. Masko—11119113
LApr 24 · 17:20D. Neborak—5360Y. Masko—1111113
WJul 25 · 06:20D. Neborak—511115113Y. Masko—11391132
LJul 24 · 16:50D. Neborak—12970Y. Masko—1411113
LJul 11 · 10:20D. Neborak—1351161Y. Masko—15118113
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161
Y. Masko10
LSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113WSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160LSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103WSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151WSep 5 · 13:55Y. Masko1.44121111103E. Pismenniy2.631013971LSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931
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