TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078919
Played Sep 5Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311119811119––
Dmytro Neborak
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 63.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 1–0 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1868 vs Neborak 1673
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 60% vs Neborak 40%
Tuzhylin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Neborak 30%
Tuzhylin
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +1 · Neborak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Tuzhylin) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.30 / Neborak 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13078919
Tuzhylin1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite76% won 204 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it99% 128 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it89% 152 of 170
Neborak3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 332
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTuzhylin1wins
AwayNeborak0wins
Tuzhylin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTuzhylinNeborakT − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.040.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime507 / 667 vs 299 / 83476%35.9%507 / 667 vs 299 / 834Avg sets wonper match2.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.835.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.30/Neborak 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin—13118113D. Neborak—1191191
A. Tuzhylin10
WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870LSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113WSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.111112113R. Reznychenko6.0081080WSep 4 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.3611813123R. Cherevko3.0061111101WSep 4 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.3691211123Y. Masko3.0011107101WAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161
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