TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073690
Played Sep 5Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.11
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210118––––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
6.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 88.6%
60 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 189–20 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 20 of their 209 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
189-20 in 209
Tuzhylin
Correct
gap of 169 in 209, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1866 vs Reznychenko 1572
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 293 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 100% vs Reznychenko 60%
Tuzhylin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Reznychenko 60%
Tuzhylin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +5 · Reznychenko +1
Tuzhylin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Tuzhylin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.11 / Reznychenko 6.00
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+4.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073690
Tuzhylin1.11
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 204 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it99% 129 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it90% 152 of 169
Reznychenko6.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin10wins
AwayReznychenko0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin100%6 of 6
AwayReznychenko0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin6Reznychenko4n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S2Tuzhylin9Reznychenko1n = 10Tuzhylin took 9 of 10
S3Tuzhylin8Reznychenko2n = 10Tuzhylin took 8 of 10
S4Tuzhylin5Reznychenko0n = 5Tuzhylin took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinReznychenkoT − RBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.528.8+10.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 659 vs 237 / 71876%33%501 / 659 vs 237 / 718Avg sets wonper match2.61.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.833.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.11/Reznychenko 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.6%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin—1111143R. Reznychenko—66120
WAug 15 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113R. Reznychenko—6750
WAug 14 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin—91111123R. Reznychenko—1167101
WAug 9 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin—9111011113R. Reznychenko—11412882
WAug 8 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin—111193R. Reznychenko—7570
WAug 8 · 02:25A. Tuzhylin—11101011113R. Reznychenko—81212992
WAug 2 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin—81111113R. Reznychenko—116671
WAug 1 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113R. Reznychenko—7690
WJul 31 · 21:55A. Tuzhylin—71111113R. Reznychenko—114781
WJul 26 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113R. Reznychenko—6390
A. Tuzhylin10
WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870LSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113WSep 4 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.3611813123R. Cherevko3.0061111101WSep 4 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.3691211123Y. Masko3.0011107101WAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
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