TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084956
Played Sep 6Finished
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119115––––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvgeniy Pismenniy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Evgeniy Pismenniy at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 121–102 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 102 of their 223 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pismenniy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
121-102 in 223
Pismenniy
Correct
gap of 19 in 223, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1616 vs Reznychenko 1526
Pismenniy
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 60% vs Reznychenko 20%
Pismenniy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 30% vs Reznychenko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy -1 · Reznychenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Pismenniy) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 1.67 / Reznychenko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Pismenniy)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084956
Pismenniy1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 37 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 30 of 39
Reznychenko2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 96 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy6wins
AwayReznychenko4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPismenniy leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy83.3%5 of 6
AwayReznychenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy6Reznychenko4n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S2Pismenniy3Reznychenko7n = 10Reznychenko took 7 of 10
S3Pismenniy8Reznychenko2n = 10Pismenniy took 8 of 10
S4Pismenniy7Reznychenko2n = 9Pismenniy took 7 of 9
S5Pismenniy2Reznychenko4n = 6Reznychenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyReznychenkoP − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match47.443.0+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 709 vs 236 / 72230%32.7%213 / 709 vs 236 / 722Avg sets wonper match1.61.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.533.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PismenniyPismenniy 1.67/Reznychenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Pismenniy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy—1111113R. Reznychenko—7950
LSep 5 · 16:55E. Pismenniy—991112102R. Reznychenko—1111910123
WSep 5 · 02:25E. Pismenniy—81111113R. Reznychenko—114651
LAug 29 · 14:25E. Pismenniy—11811862R. Reznychenko—911911113
WAug 28 · 21:55E. Pismenniy—111311113R. Reznychenko—815581
WAug 23 · 19:55E. Pismenniy—11811143R. Reznychenko—8118121
LAug 22 · 18:55E. Pismenniy—1313111182R. Reznychenko—151558113
WAug 22 · 02:55E. Pismenniy—1251111113R. Reznychenko—101113562
LAug 15 · 19:55E. Pismenniy—1011918102R. Reznychenko—1281116123
WAug 15 · 02:55E. Pismenniy—118118133R. Reznychenko—511811112
E. Pismenniy10
LSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:55Y. Masko1.44121111103E. Pismenniy2.631013971LSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870
R. Reznychenko10
WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LSep 5 · 04:25R. Reznychenko2.5010850R. Cherevko1.501211113
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