TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084520
Played Sep 6Finished
Roman Cherevko
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111171012711––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 59.4%
75 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 124–101 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 101 of their 225 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
124-101 in 225
Cherevko
Wrong
gap of 23 in 225, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1673 vs Reznychenko 1531
Cherevko
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 40% vs Reznychenko 0%
Cherevko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 50% vs Reznychenko 10%
Cherevko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko -3 · Reznychenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cherevko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.67 / Reznychenko 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Cherevko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084520
Cherevko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 98 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it87% 67 of 77
Reznychenko2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 96 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko4wins
AwayReznychenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderReznychenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko60%3 of 5
AwayReznychenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko5Reznychenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Cherevko5Reznychenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Cherevko4Reznychenko6n = 10Reznychenko took 6 of 10
S4Cherevko4Reznychenko3n = 7Cherevko took 4 of 7
S5Cherevko1Reznychenko2n = 3Reznychenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoReznychenkoC − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.3+1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 742 vs 236 / 72251.1%32.7%379 / 742 vs 236 / 722Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.633.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoCherevko 1.67/Reznychenko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.4%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 15:25R. Cherevko—511611113R. Reznychenko—11611652
LAug 8 · 13:25R. Cherevko—681171R. Reznychenko—11116113
LAug 8 · 24:25R. Cherevko—53130R. Reznychenko—1111153
WAug 2 · 16:25R. Cherevko—1111113R. Reznychenko—6650
WAug 1 · 15:25R. Cherevko—1111133R. Reznychenko—56110
LJul 31 · 22:55R. Cherevko—81141392R. Reznychenko—1141111113
LJul 26 · 16:25R. Cherevko—136711102R. Reznychenko—1111114123
WJul 26 · 03:55R. Cherevko—111111113R. Reznychenko—713591
LJul 24 · 14:25R. Cherevko—81110101R. Reznychenko—11612123
LJul 12 · 16:55R. Cherevko—117891R. Reznychenko—41111113
R. Cherevko10
WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532LSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 04:25R. Reznychenko2.5010850R. Cherevko1.501211113
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LSep 5 · 04:25R. Reznychenko2.5010850R. Cherevko1.501211113
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