TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079556
Played Sep 5Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.11
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118611116––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
6.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 88.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 192–20 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 20 of their 212 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
192-20 in 212
Tuzhylin
Correct
gap of 172 in 212, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1866 vs Reznychenko 1523
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 343 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 60% vs Reznychenko 20%
Tuzhylin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Reznychenko 40%
Tuzhylin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +2 · Reznychenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Tuzhylin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuzhylin form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.11 / Reznychenko 6.00
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+4.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079556
Tuzhylin1.11
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite76% won 204 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it99% 128 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it89% 152 of 170
Reznychenko6.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 95 of 292
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin10wins
AwayReznychenko0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin100%6 of 6
AwayReznychenko0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin6Reznychenko4n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S2Tuzhylin9Reznychenko1n = 10Tuzhylin took 9 of 10
S3Tuzhylin7Reznychenko3n = 10Tuzhylin took 7 of 10
S4Tuzhylin6Reznychenko0n = 6Tuzhylin took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinReznychenkoT − RBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.631.1+9.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 665 vs 238 / 72475.9%32.9%505 / 665 vs 238 / 724Avg sets wonper match2.61.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.833.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.11/Reznychenko 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.6%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin—1112113R. Reznychenko—81080
WAug 29 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin—71111113R. Reznychenko—116981
WAug 29 · 02:25A. Tuzhylin—111110113R. Reznychenko—481291
WAug 21 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin—1111143R. Reznychenko—66120
WAug 15 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113R. Reznychenko—6750
WAug 14 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin—91111123R. Reznychenko—1167101
WAug 9 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin—9111011113R. Reznychenko—11412882
WAug 8 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin—111193R. Reznychenko—7570
WAug 8 · 02:25A. Tuzhylin—11101011113R. Reznychenko—81212992
WAug 2 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin—81111113R. Reznychenko—116671
A. Tuzhylin10
WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870LSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113WSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.111112113R. Reznychenko6.0081080WSep 4 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.3611813123R. Cherevko3.0061111101WSep 4 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.3691211123Y. Masko3.0011107101WAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.111112113R. Reznychenko6.0081080
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