TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079277
Played Sep 5Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121411891112101012
Roman Cherevko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 109 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 73.2%
109 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 160–58 Roman Cherevko Roman Cherevko has won 58 of their 218 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tuzhylin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
160-58 in 218
Tuzhylin
Wrong
gap of 102 in 218, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1857 vs Cherevko 1674
Tuzhylin
Wrong
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Cherevko 60%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 70% vs Cherevko 50%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +1 · Cherevko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Tuzhylin) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.44 / Cherevko 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079277
Tuzhylin1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite76% won 204 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it99% 128 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it89% 152 of 170
Cherevko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 71 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin6wins
AwayCherevko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin83.3%5 of 6
AwayCherevko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin6Cherevko4n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S2Tuzhylin6Cherevko4n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S3Tuzhylin5Cherevko5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuzhylin3Cherevko0n = 3Tuzhylin took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinCherevkoT − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.932.1+1.8per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 662 vs 378 / 74276%50.9%503 / 662 vs 378 / 742Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.44/Cherevko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin—1111113R. Cherevko—9990
WAug 22 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin—1211113R. Cherevko—10850
WAug 15 · 20:25A. Tuzhylin—131111113R. Cherevko—157861
LAug 15 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin—99100R. Cherevko—1111123
LAug 9 · 20:25A. Tuzhylin—8760R. Cherevko—1111113
WAug 8 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113R. Cherevko—6980
LAug 8 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin—51090R. Cherevko—1112113
WAug 2 · 20:25A. Tuzhylin—11119113R. Cherevko—871171
WAug 1 · 20:25A. Tuzhylin—1111113R. Cherevko—7770
LAug 1 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin—11361872R. Cherevko—8111116113
A. Tuzhylin10
WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870LSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113WSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.111112113R. Reznychenko6.0081080WSep 4 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.3611813123R. Cherevko3.0061111101WSep 4 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.3691211123Y. Masko3.0011107101WAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
R. Cherevko10
WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532LSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103LSep 4 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.3611813123R. Cherevko3.0061111101
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.