TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084166
Played Sep 6Finished
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511116511116115
Roman Cherevko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:10 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 82 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 68.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 67–161 Roman Cherevko Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 67 of their 228 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-161 in 228
Cherevko
Wrong
gap of 94 in 228, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1566 vs Cherevko 1706
Cherevko
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 40% vs Cherevko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 30% vs Cherevko 60%
Cherevko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy +2 · Cherevko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Cherevko) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 2.50 / Cherevko 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Cherevko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084166
Pismenniy2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back7% 11 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 98
Cherevko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 98 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it87% 67 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy1wins
AwayCherevko9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy20%1 of 5
AwayCherevko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy5Cherevko5n = 10split evenly
S2Pismenniy5Cherevko5n = 10split evenly
S3Pismenniy2Cherevko8n = 10Cherevko took 8 of 10
S4Pismenniy1Cherevko6n = 7Cherevko took 6 of 7
S5Pismenniy0Cherevko3n = 3Cherevko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyCherevkoP − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.540.4−5.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 708 vs 380 / 74229.9%51.2%212 / 708 vs 380 / 742Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoPismenniy 2.50/Cherevko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy—711691R. Cherevko—11511113
LSep 4 · 21:55E. Pismenniy—12113792R. Cherevko—1091111113
LAug 29 · 16:55E. Pismenniy—111289162R. Cherevko—9101111183
LAug 28 · 22:55E. Pismenniy—1091171R. Cherevko—12114113
LAug 23 · 14:25E. Pismenniy—51020R. Cherevko—1112113
LAug 22 · 16:55E. Pismenniy—111061272R. Cherevko—6121110113
WAug 22 · 01:25E. Pismenniy—1111113R. Cherevko—6590
LAug 15 · 14:25E. Pismenniy—7790R. Cherevko—1111113
LAug 15 · 01:25E. Pismenniy—211951R. Cherevko—11511113
LAug 9 · 16:25E. Pismenniy—119561R. Cherevko—91111113
E. Pismenniy10
WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950LSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:55Y. Masko1.44121111103E. Pismenniy2.631013971LSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870
R. Cherevko10
WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532LSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 04:25R. Reznychenko2.5010850R. Cherevko1.501211113
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