TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084246
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111181416119119
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Neborak to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 106 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Dmytro Neborak at 71.6%
106 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 4–2 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Neborak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Neborak
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1695 vs Pismenniy 1602
Neborak
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 100% vs Pismenniy 60%
Neborak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 60% vs Pismenniy 40%
Neborak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +5 · Pismenniy +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Neborak) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 1.25 / Pismenniy 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Neborak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084246
Neborak1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 38 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Pismenniy3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back7% 11 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeNeborak4wins
AwayPismenniy2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderNeborak leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak60%3 of 5
AwayPismenniyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak5Pismenniy1n = 6Neborak took 5 of 6
S2Neborak4Pismenniy2n = 6Neborak took 4 of 6
S3Neborak5Pismenniy1n = 6Neborak took 5 of 6
S4Neborak1Pismenniy2n = 3Pismenniy took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricNeborakPismenniyN − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match37.332.2+5.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 837 vs 213 / 70936.1%30%302 / 837 vs 213 / 709Avg sets wonper match1.71.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeborakNeborak 1.25/Pismenniy 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Neborak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak—1112113E. Pismenniy—21080
LAug 23 · 17:55D. Neborak—12811282E. Pismenniy—1011911113
WAug 22 · 20:25D. Neborak—1113113E. Pismenniy—71180
WFeb 22 · 11:00D. Neborak—1115113E. Pismenniy—81360
LFeb 21 · 12:20D. Neborak—1112881E. Pismenniy—41411113
WFeb 20 · 21:20D. Neborak—51111113E. Pismenniy—118181
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161
E. Pismenniy10
WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:55Y. Masko1.44121111103E. Pismenniy2.631013971LSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870
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