TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079299
Played Sep 5Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.11
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210118––––
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Away
6.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 88.6%
60 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 181–18 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 18 of their 199 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
181-18 in 199
Tuzhylin
Correct
gap of 163 in 199, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1838 vs Pismenniy 1548
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 290 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 60% vs Pismenniy 20%
Tuzhylin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 70% vs Pismenniy 30%
Tuzhylin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin -1 · Pismenniy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Tuzhylin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuzhylin form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.11 / Pismenniy 6.00
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+4.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079299
Tuzhylin1.11
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite76% won 204 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it99% 128 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it89% 152 of 170
Pismenniy6.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back7% 11 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin10wins
AwayPismenniy0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin100%9 of 9
AwayPismenniyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin9Pismenniy1n = 10Tuzhylin took 9 of 10
S2Tuzhylin7Pismenniy3n = 10Tuzhylin took 7 of 10
S3Tuzhylin10Pismenniy0n = 10Tuzhylin took 10 of 10
S4Tuzhylin2Pismenniy2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinPismenniyT − PBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.926.9+10.0per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 663 vs 213 / 71075.9%30%503 / 663 vs 213 / 710Avg sets wonper match2.61.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.11/Pismenniy 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.6%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 16:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113E. Pismenniy—7860
WAug 7 · 21:55A. Tuzhylin—116113113E. Pismenniy—71171152
WAug 2 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113E. Pismenniy—8760
WAug 1 · 16:55A. Tuzhylin—111011113E. Pismenniy—812741
WAug 1 · 02:25A. Tuzhylin—1111113E. Pismenniy—9750
WJul 26 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113E. Pismenniy—6880
WJul 26 · 02:25A. Tuzhylin—1111113E. Pismenniy—6690
WJul 24 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin—116115113E. Pismenniy—51181152
WJul 12 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin—1111113E. Pismenniy—9560
WJul 11 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin—81111123E. Pismenniy—1164101
A. Tuzhylin10
WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870LSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113WSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.111112113R. Reznychenko6.0081080WSep 4 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.3611813123R. Cherevko3.0061111101WSep 4 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.3691211123Y. Masko3.0011107101WAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
E. Pismenniy10
WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950LSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 13:55Y. Masko1.44121111103E. Pismenniy2.631013971LSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870
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