TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073782
Played Sep 5Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11711131412711311
Valeriy Melnik
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 100 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 59.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 121–90 Valeriy Melnik Valeriy Melnik has won 90 of their 211 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tuzhylin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
121-90 in 211
Tuzhylin
Wrong
gap of 31 in 211, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1871 vs Melnik 1659
Tuzhylin
Wrong
both rated, 212 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 100% vs Melnik 40%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Melnik 40%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +5 · Melnik -1
Tuzhylin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tuzhylin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuzhylin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.67 / Melnik 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073782
Tuzhylin1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 204 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it99% 129 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it90% 152 of 169
Melnik2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin4wins
AwayMelnik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin66.7%4 of 6
AwayMelnik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin6Melnik4n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S2Tuzhylin7Melnik3n = 10Tuzhylin took 7 of 10
S3Tuzhylin5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuzhylin3Melnik4n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S5Tuzhylin0Melnik3n = 3Melnik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinMelnikT − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.235.7+2.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime502 / 660 vs 393 / 70976.1%55.4%502 / 660 vs 393 / 709Avg sets wonper match2.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.67/Melnik 2.10
Miss
What we said
59%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 22:25A. Tuzhylin—811131182V. Melnik—113155113
WAug 22 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113V. Melnik—8660
LAug 15 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—991181V. Melnik—11116113
LAug 15 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin—61111842V. Melnik—117611113
LAug 9 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—51161192V. Melnik—119116113
WAug 8 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113V. Melnik—2770
LAug 7 · 23:55A. Tuzhylin—117781V. Melnik—91111113
WAug 2 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—11115113V. Melnik—981161
WAug 1 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—1115103V. Melnik—81340
LJul 31 · 23:55A. Tuzhylin—1191181V. Melnik—71113113
A. Tuzhylin10
WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870WSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.111112113R. Reznychenko6.0081080WSep 4 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.3611813123R. Cherevko3.0061111101WSep 4 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.3691211123Y. Masko3.0011107101WAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
V. Melnik10
WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik1.831115111282R. Cherevko1.83917914113WSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.75115631V. Melnik1.4071111113WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik1.361111123R. Reznychenko3.0064100LAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
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