TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073937
Played Sep 4Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161141210––––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 54 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 72.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 149–78 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 78 of their 227 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
149-78 in 227
Melnik
Correct
gap of 71 in 227, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1662 vs Reznychenko 1553
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Reznychenko 60%
Reznychenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 50% vs Reznychenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -2 · Reznychenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.36 / Reznychenko 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Melnik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073937
Melnik1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 138 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it99% 76 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it82% 108 of 132
Reznychenko3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik7wins
AwayReznychenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayReznychenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik6Reznychenko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S2Melnik7Reznychenko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Melnik9Reznychenko1n = 10Melnik took 9 of 10
S4Melnik3Reznychenko2n = 5Melnik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikReznychenkoM − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.030.3+7.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 707 vs 236 / 71755.5%32.9%392 / 707 vs 236 / 717Avg sets wonper match2.11.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.833.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.36/Reznychenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik—1111123R. Reznychenko—64100
LAug 29 · 18:25V. Melnik—7614101R. Reznychenko—111112123
WAug 28 · 23:55V. Melnik—1111113R. Reznychenko—5870
LAug 23 · 17:25V. Melnik—1291211112R. Reznychenko—1011146133
WAug 22 · 17:25V. Melnik—1111113R. Reznychenko—3920
WAug 22 · 24:55V. Melnik—61114113R. Reznychenko—1121271
LAug 15 · 17:25V. Melnik—1071181R. Reznychenko—12116113
WAug 15 · 24:55V. Melnik—1111113R. Reznychenko—9980
WAug 9 · 17:25V. Melnik—1111113R. Reznychenko—1760
WAug 8 · 19:25V. Melnik—91211123R. Reznychenko—11106101
V. Melnik10
WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931WSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik1.831115111282R. Cherevko1.83917914113WSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.75115631V. Melnik1.4071111113LAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
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