TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084241
Played Sep 6Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11991111972––
Roman Cherevko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-2
Point 69 set 4, 7-2 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 135–93 Roman Cherevko Roman Cherevko has won 93 of their 228 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:39What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
135-93 in 228
Melnik
Correct
gap of 42 in 228, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1692 vs Cherevko 1726
Cherevko
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 80% vs Cherevko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 60% vs Cherevko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +2 · Cherevko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.80 / Cherevko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Melnik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084241
Melnik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 140 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it99% 77 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it81% 109 of 134
Cherevko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 72 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik4wins
AwayCherevko6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik57.1%4 of 7
AwayCherevko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik7Cherevko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S2Melnik6Cherevko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Melnik7Cherevko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Melnik2Cherevko3n = 5Cherevko took 3 of 5
S5Melnik0Cherevko5n = 5Cherevko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikCherevkoM − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.540.5+2.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 711 vs 382 / 74755.6%51.1%395 / 711 vs 382 / 747Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.80/Cherevko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik—1115111282R. Cherevko—917914113
WAug 29 · 13:55V. Melnik—1119113R. Cherevko—61790
LAug 29 · 01:55V. Melnik—9121111112R. Cherevko—1110135133
WAug 23 · 18:25V. Melnik—1112113R. Cherevko—41080
LAug 22 · 15:55V. Melnik—81191292R. Cherevko—1181110113
WAug 21 · 23:55V. Melnik—1211113R. Cherevko—10770
WAug 15 · 18:25V. Melnik—1115133R. Cherevko—513110
LAug 14 · 23:55V. Melnik—111011682R. Cherevko—712911113
LAug 9 · 18:25V. Melnik—12980R. Cherevko—1411113
LAug 8 · 17:25V. Melnik—11411792R. Cherevko—711911113
V. Melnik10
WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931WSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik1.831115111282R. Cherevko1.83917914113WSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.75115631V. Melnik1.4071111113WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik1.361111123R. Reznychenko3.0064100LAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
R. Cherevko10
WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik1.831115111282R. Cherevko1.83917914113
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