TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073981
Played Sep 5Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11915171191214811
Roman Cherevko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 117 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 54.0%
117 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 131–89 Roman Cherevko Roman Cherevko has won 89 of their 220 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:00What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
131-89 in 220
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 42 in 220, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1671 vs Cherevko 1664
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Cherevko 40%
Melnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 50% vs Cherevko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +2 · Cherevko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.83 / Cherevko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Melnik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073981
Melnik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Cherevko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik5wins
AwayCherevko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik50%2 of 4
AwayCherevko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik4Cherevko6n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S2Melnik3Cherevko7n = 10Cherevko took 7 of 10
S3Melnik6Cherevko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S4Melnik6Cherevko3n = 9Melnik took 6 of 9
S5Melnik2Cherevko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikCherevkoM − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.542.4+1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 708 vs 376 / 73955.5%50.9%393 / 708 vs 376 / 739Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.83/Cherevko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 18:25V. Melnik—12980R. Cherevko—1411113
LAug 8 · 17:25V. Melnik—11411792R. Cherevko—711911113
WAug 8 · 01:55V. Melnik—9111311113R. Cherevko—11515672
WAug 2 · 18:25V. Melnik—791411113R. Cherevko—111112682
LAug 1 · 18:25V. Melnik—12111181R. Cherevko—14138113
WAug 1 · 01:55V. Melnik—101111133R. Cherevko—1268111
WJul 26 · 18:25V. Melnik—11126123R. Cherevko—71011101
LJul 26 · 24:55V. Melnik—881151R. Cherevko—11112113
WJul 24 · 15:55V. Melnik—13911113R. Cherevko—1111691
LJul 19 · 13:55V. Melnik—119131192R. Cherevko—811159113
V. Melnik10
WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931WSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113WSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.75115631V. Melnik1.4071111113WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik1.361111123R. Reznychenko3.0064100LAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
R. Cherevko10
WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532LSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123
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