TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073982
Played Sep 4Finished
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511611311––
Valeriy Melnik
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 65 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 69.5%
65 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 82–138 Valeriy Melnik Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 82 of their 220 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
82-138 in 220
Melnik
Correct
gap of 56 in 220, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1542 vs Melnik 1662
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 40% vs Melnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 20% vs Melnik 50%
Melnik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy -1 · Melnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 2.75 / Melnik 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Melnik)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073982
Pismenniy2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog24% won 60 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back7% 11 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Melnik1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 138 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it99% 76 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it82% 108 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy2wins
AwayMelnik8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy40%2 of 5
AwayMelnik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Pismenniy4Melnik6n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Pismenniy1Melnik9n = 10Melnik took 9 of 10
S4Pismenniy4Melnik4n = 8split evenly
S5Pismenniy1Melnik3n = 4Melnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyMelnikP − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.242.9−4.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 705 vs 392 / 70730.1%55.5%212 / 705 vs 392 / 707Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikPismenniy 2.75/Melnik 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 15:55E. Pismenniy—7780V. Melnik—1111113
LAug 22 · 13:55E. Pismenniy—651181V. Melnik—11117113
WAug 22 · 03:55E. Pismenniy—11118113V. Melnik—751161
LAug 15 · 15:55E. Pismenniy—11101111102V. Melnik—912139123
LAug 15 · 03:55E. Pismenniy—811671V. Melnik—11911113
WAug 9 · 19:25E. Pismenniy—118811113V. Melnik—91111692
LAug 8 · 15:55E. Pismenniy—1411710172V. Melnik—1281112193
LAug 8 · 24:55E. Pismenniy—7990V. Melnik—1111113
LAug 2 · 17:25E. Pismenniy—11731272V. Melnik—7111110113
LAug 1 · 15:55E. Pismenniy—6114101V. Melnik—11611113
E. Pismenniy10
WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950LSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:55Y. Masko1.44121111103E. Pismenniy2.631013971
V. Melnik10
WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931WSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik1.831115111282R. Cherevko1.83917914113WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik1.361111123R. Reznychenko3.0064100LAug 29 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.571113113V. Melnik2.2581180
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