TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084227
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
19178111315115113
Roman Cherevko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 19-17
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 113 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 62.5%
113 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 1–3 Roman Cherevko Dmytro Neborak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:30What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Cherevko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1680 vs Cherevko 1672
Neborak
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 60% vs Cherevko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 50% vs Cherevko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +3 · Cherevko -1
Neborak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Cherevko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.50 / Cherevko 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Cherevko)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13084227
Neborak2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 331
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 122
Cherevko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 98 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it87% 67 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNeborak1wins
AwayCherevko3wins
4 of 4 to a deciderCherevko leads 3–1, and 4 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak33.3%1 of 3
AwayCherevkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak3Cherevko1n = 4Neborak took 3 of 4
S2Neborak3Cherevko1n = 4Neborak took 3 of 4
S3Neborak1Cherevko3n = 4Cherevko took 3 of 4
S4Neborak1Cherevko3n = 4Cherevko took 3 of 4
S5Neborak1Cherevko3n = 4Cherevko took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away375%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricNeborakCherevkoN − CBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match51.252.5−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 839 vs 379 / 74236.1%51.1%303 / 839 vs 379 / 742Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoNeborak 2.50/Cherevko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.3%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak—1981311113R. Cherevko—171115532
LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak—111115972R. Cherevko—981711103
LAug 23 · 16:25D. Neborak—11115872R. Cherevko—981111113
LAug 22 · 14:25D. Neborak—611121362R. Cherevko—1171015113
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163LAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161
R. Cherevko10
WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 04:25R. Reznychenko2.5010850R. Cherevko1.501211113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.