TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073970
Played Sep 5Finished
Roman Reznychenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811511––––
Roman Cherevko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Reznychenko above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 57 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 64.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Roman Reznychenko 101–124 Roman Cherevko Roman Reznychenko has won 101 of their 225 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
101-124 in 225
Cherevko
Correct
gap of 23 in 225, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reznychenko 1553 vs Cherevko 1664
Cherevko
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reznychenko 40% vs Cherevko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reznychenko 50% vs Cherevko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reznychenko -2 · Cherevko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Cherevko) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReznychenko 2.50 / Cherevko 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Cherevko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13073970
Reznychenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 119
Cherevko1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 94 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it87% 65 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReznychenko6wins
AwayCherevko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderReznychenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReznychenko80%4 of 5
AwayCherevko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reznychenko5Cherevko5n = 10split evenly
S2Reznychenko5Cherevko5n = 10split evenly
S3Reznychenko6Cherevko4n = 10Reznychenko took 6 of 10
S4Reznychenko3Cherevko4n = 7Cherevko took 4 of 7
S5Reznychenko2Cherevko1n = 3Reznychenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricReznychenkoCherevkoR − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.5−1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReznychenkoCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 720 vs 377 / 74132.9%50.9%237 / 720 vs 377 / 741Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoReznychenko 2.50/Cherevko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 15:25R. Reznychenko—11611652R. Cherevko—511611113
WAug 8 · 13:25R. Reznychenko—11116113R. Cherevko—681171
WAug 8 · 24:25R. Reznychenko—1111153R. Cherevko—53130
LAug 2 · 16:25R. Reznychenko—6650R. Cherevko—1111113
LAug 1 · 15:25R. Reznychenko—56110R. Cherevko—1111133
WJul 31 · 22:55R. Reznychenko—1141111113R. Cherevko—81141392
WJul 26 · 16:25R. Reznychenko—1111114123R. Cherevko—136711102
LJul 26 · 03:55R. Reznychenko—713591R. Cherevko—111111113
WJul 24 · 14:25R. Reznychenko—11612123R. Cherevko—81110101
WJul 12 · 16:55R. Reznychenko—41111113R. Cherevko—117891
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:55R. Reznychenko1.911111910123E. Pismenniy1.80991112102LSep 5 · 15:55Y. Masko1.221161383R. Reznychenko4.005111151LSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
R. Cherevko10
WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532LSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123
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