TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059560
Played Sep 2Finished
Jan Stoch
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115115411911114
Lukas Martinak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Martinak to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Stoch above · Lukas Martinak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 82 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Lukas Martinak at 55.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Stoch 4–5 Lukas Martinak Jan Stoch has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Martinak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoch 1521 vs Martinak 1656
Martinak
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoch 40% vs Martinak 60%
Martinak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoch 30% vs Martinak 50%
Martinak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoch +1 · Martinak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martinak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoch form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoch 1.91 / Martinak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Martinak)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059560
Stoch1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 14 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Martinak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeStoch4wins
AwayMartinak5wins
5 of 9 to a deciderMartinak leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStoch33.3%1 of 3
AwayMartinak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoch3Martinak6n = 9Martinak took 6 of 9
S2Stoch4Martinak5n = 9Martinak took 5 of 9
S3Stoch7Martinak2n = 9Stoch took 7 of 9
S4Stoch4Martinak4n = 8split evenly
S5Stoch2Martinak3n = 5Martinak took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricStochMartinakS − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match40.941.0−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStochMartinakBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 103 vs 142 / 26439.8%53.8%41 / 103 vs 142 / 264Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinakStoch 1.91/Martinak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Martinak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LApr 28 · 17:29J. Stoch—731111112L. Martinak—111166133
WApr 28 · 16:00J. Stoch—1111113L. Martinak—6960
WJan 16 · 10:02J. Stoch—611118113L. Martinak—11481182
LJan 16 · 07:00J. Stoch—11811882L. Martinak—811911113
LNov 18 · 12:00J. Stoch—105111472L. Martinak—1211712113
LNov 11 · 18:30J. Stoch—981171L. Martinak—11117113
WNov 11 · 16:00J. Stoch—41111113L. Martinak—116781
WNov 3 · 18:32J. Stoch—811911113L. Martinak—11911392
LNov 3 · 16:30J. Stoch—116761L. Martinak—81111113
J. Stoch10
LSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113LSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113LAug 12 · 17:00J. Stoch1.83711751R. Vavrecka1.8311511113LAug 12 · 16:00D. Machander1.83121199113J. Stoch1.83103111132LAug 12 · 15:00R. Vavrecka2.0081111113J. Stoch1.73118961WAug 12 · 14:30J. Stoch1.801111113V. Adamczyk1.914530WJul 16 · 17:02A. Walek1.731041431J. Stoch2.00121112113LJul 16 · 16:00J. Stoch2.20121311782A. Walek1.611015911113LJul 16 · 15:30S. Byrtus2.3811117113J. Stoch1.53871191
L. Martinak10
LSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113WSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak1.804980M. Bereiter1.911111113LSep 6 · 06:00T. Kypr2.0091111143L. Martinak1.731154121LSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:00L. Martinak1.809980D. Heczko1.911111113LSep 5 · 07:30J. Snr1.83811115113L. Martinak1.8311941162WSep 5 · 06:00L. Martinak1.73111153113A. Walek2.0075111162WSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:00L. Martinak2.0011111113R. Skacelik1.73911881
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