TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081848
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukas Martinak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117117––––
Adrian Walek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Martinak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Martinak above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Martinak at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Martinak 12–11 Adrian Walek Adrian Walek has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:18What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Martinak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martinak 1612 vs Walek 1628
Walek
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martinak 0% vs Walek 20%
Walek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martinak 40% vs Walek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martinak -5 · Walek -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martinak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartinak 1.73 / Walek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Martinak)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081848
Martinak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 49 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it71% 37 of 52
Walek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 91 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back36% 32 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartinak5wins
AwayWalek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinak66.7%2 of 3
AwayWalek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martinak3Walek7n = 10Walek took 7 of 10
S2Martinak7Walek3n = 10Martinak took 7 of 10
S3Martinak4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S4Martinak3Walek6n = 9Walek took 6 of 9
S5Martinak4Walek2n = 6Martinak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartinakWalekM − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.242.7−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinakWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 273 vs 226 / 44453.1%50.9%145 / 273 vs 226 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinakMartinak 1.73/Walek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Martinak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Martinak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 09:00L. Martinak—111091442A. Walek—9121112113
WSep 5 · 06:00L. Martinak—111153113A. Walek—75111162
LAug 20 · 13:00L. Martinak—911891A. Walek—11911113
WAug 20 · 10:00L. Martinak—914117123A. Walek—1112611102
WAug 3 · 09:10L. Martinak—111111113A. Walek—791391
WAug 3 · 07:30L. Martinak—711113113A. Walek—11681182
LJun 22 · 10:00L. Martinak—911101182A. Walek—117124113
WApr 15 · 13:30L. Martinak—911119113A. Walek—11251182
LApr 15 · 12:30L. Martinak—7111171A. Walek—11138113
LApr 11 · 20:30L. Martinak—3890A. Walek—1111113
L. Martinak10
LSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak1.804980M. Bereiter1.911111113LSep 6 · 06:00T. Kypr2.0091111143L. Martinak1.731154121LSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:00L. Martinak1.809980D. Heczko1.911111113LSep 5 · 07:30J. Snr1.83811115113L. Martinak1.8311941162WSep 5 · 06:00L. Martinak1.73111153113A. Walek2.0075111162WSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:00L. Martinak2.0011111113R. Skacelik1.73911881LSep 2 · 15:30J. Stoch1.91111149113L. Martinak1.8055111142
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:30A. Walek2.38118591J. Snr1.5391111113LSep 5 · 06:00L. Martinak1.73111153113A. Walek2.0075111162
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