TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081844
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukas Martinak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911811––––
Marek Bereiter
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Martinak to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Martinak above · Marek Bereiter below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Martinak at 70.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Martinak 6–1 Marek Bereiter Marek Bereiter has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:19What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Martinak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Martinak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martinak 1650 vs Bereiter 1706
Bereiter
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martinak 20% vs Bereiter 80%
Bereiter
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martinak 50% vs Bereiter 70%
Bereiter
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martinak -4 · Bereiter +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martinak) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bereiter form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartinak 1.80 / Bereiter 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bereiter)-2.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13081844
Martinak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 50 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it69% 38 of 55
Bereiter1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog54% won 19 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back37% 7 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMartinak6wins
AwayBereiter1wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMartinak leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinak100%4 of 4
AwayBereiter33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martinak4Bereiter3n = 7Martinak took 4 of 7
S2Martinak4Bereiter3n = 7Martinak took 4 of 7
S3Martinak3Bereiter4n = 7Bereiter took 4 of 7
S4Martinak5Bereiter0n = 5Martinak took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMartinakBereiterM − BBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match39.732.0+7.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinakBereiterBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 275 vs 36 / 6453.1%56.3%146 / 275 vs 36 / 64Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinakMartinak 1.80/Bereiter 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Martinak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bereiter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak—4980M. Bereiter—1111113
WAug 15 · 19:00L. Martinak—71111113M. Bereiter—115851
WJul 21 · 08:30L. Martinak—117911113M. Bereiter—61111972
WJul 20 · 09:12L. Martinak—11139113M. Bereiter—4111121
WJul 20 · 06:30L. Martinak—11119113M. Bereiter—581141
WApr 12 · 13:00L. Martinak—5101112113M. Bereiter—111271052
WApr 12 · 12:30L. Martinak—1111113M. Bereiter—5840
L. Martinak10
LSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113WSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 06:00T. Kypr2.0091111143L. Martinak1.731154121LSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:00L. Martinak1.809980D. Heczko1.911111113LSep 5 · 07:30J. Snr1.83811115113L. Martinak1.8311941162WSep 5 · 06:00L. Martinak1.73111153113A. Walek2.0075111162WSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:00L. Martinak2.0011111113R. Skacelik1.73911881LSep 2 · 15:30J. Stoch1.91111149113L. Martinak1.8055111142
M. Bereiter10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Bereiter1.807970T. Kypr1.901111113WSep 6 · 08:00T. Kypr1.737111081M. Bereiter2.0011912113WSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172WSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113WSep 5 · 12:00M. Bereiter1.53148811133D. Heczko2.381211118112LSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:00M. Bereiter1.5315118113D. Langer2.381321161LSep 3 · 17:29T. Kypr1.731111113M. Bereiter2.009730LSep 3 · 16:00M. Bereiter2.00511481T. Kypr1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.837860M. Bereiter1.831111113
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