TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081850
Played Sep 6Finished
Marek Bereiter
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13151715117611117
Adrian Walek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Bereiter to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Bereiter above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 113 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Marek Bereiter at 54.0%
113 points played in total.
H2H Marek Bereiter 3–2 Adrian Walek Adrian Walek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:19What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bereiter
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bereiter 1706 vs Walek 1590
Bereiter
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bereiter 60% vs Walek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bereiter 60% vs Walek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bereiter +2 · Walek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Bereiter) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBereiter 1.67 / Walek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Bereiter)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081850
Bereiter1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 17 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Walek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 92 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back36% 33 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back17% 7 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBereiter3wins
AwayWalek2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBereiter leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBereitern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayWalek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bereiter2Walek3n = 5Walek took 3 of 5
S2Bereiter3Walek2n = 5Bereiter took 3 of 5
S3Bereiter2Walek3n = 5Walek took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricBereiterWalekB − WBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match36.634.8+1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBereiterWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 64 vs 227 / 44656.3%50.9%36 / 64 vs 227 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BereiterBereiter 1.67/Walek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Bereiter · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bereiter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter—1317116113A. Walek—151571172
WSep 5 · 13:28M. Bereiter—1113113A. Walek—21180
LSep 5 · 11:30M. Bereiter—81070A. Walek—1112113
WApr 8 · 17:00M. Bereiter—11116123A. Walek—4611101
LApr 8 · 14:30M. Bereiter—9880A. Walek—1111113
M. Bereiter10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Bereiter1.807970T. Kypr1.901111113WSep 6 · 08:00T. Kypr1.737111081M. Bereiter2.0011912113WSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak1.804980M. Bereiter1.911111113WSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113WSep 5 · 12:00M. Bereiter1.53148811133D. Heczko2.381211118112LSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:00M. Bereiter1.5315118113D. Langer2.381321161LSep 3 · 17:29T. Kypr1.731111113M. Bereiter2.009730LSep 3 · 16:00M. Bereiter2.00511481T. Kypr1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.837860M. Bereiter1.831111113
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:30A. Walek2.38118591J. Snr1.5391111113WSep 5 · 07:00A. Walek2.10121112113D. Heczko1.671481071
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