TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077464
Played Sep 5Finished
Adrian Walek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210117––––
Marek Bereiter
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeAdrian Walek to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Walek above · Marek Bereiter below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 59 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Adrian Walek at 55.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Walek 2–1 Marek Bereiter Marek Bereiter has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:07What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Walek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Walek 1699 vs Bereiter 1635
Walek
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Walek 60% vs Bereiter 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Walek 70% vs Bereiter 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Walek +2 · Bereiter +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Walek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWalek 1.80 / Bereiter 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Walek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077464
Walek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 67 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it68% 49 of 72
Bereiter1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog53% won 17 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back39% 7 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back22% 2 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeWalek2wins
AwayBereiter1wins
Walek leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Walek2Bereiter1n = 3Walek took 2 of 3
S2Walek2Bereiter1n = 3Walek took 2 of 3
S3Walek3Bereiter0n = 3Walek took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricWalekBereiterW − BBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match32.730.0+2.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWalekBereiterBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 440 vs 31 / 5851.4%53.5%226 / 440 vs 31 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WalekWalek 1.80/Bereiter 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Walek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Walek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek—1112113M. Bereiter—81070
LApr 8 · 17:00A. Walek—4611101M. Bereiter—11116123
WApr 8 · 14:30A. Walek—1111113M. Bereiter—9880
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:30A. Walek2.38118591J. Snr1.5391111113WSep 5 · 07:00A. Walek2.10121112113D. Heczko1.671481071
M. Bereiter10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Bereiter1.807970T. Kypr1.901111113WSep 6 · 08:00T. Kypr1.737111081M. Bereiter2.0011912113WSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak1.804980M. Bereiter1.911111113WSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172WSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113WSep 5 · 12:00M. Bereiter1.53148811133D. Heczko2.381211118112WSep 5 · 10:00M. Bereiter1.5315118113D. Langer2.381321161LSep 3 · 17:29T. Kypr1.731111113M. Bereiter2.009730LSep 3 · 16:00M. Bereiter2.00511481T. Kypr1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.837860M. Bereiter1.831111113
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