TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077465
Played Sep 5Finished
Adrian Walek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811511911––
Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeAdrian Walek to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Walek above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Adrian Walek at 54.4%
75 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Walek 3–7 Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr Adrian Walek has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Snr
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Walek 1678 vs Snr 1606
Walek
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Walek 60% vs Snr 40%
Walek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Walek 70% vs Snr 20%
Walek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Walek +1 · Snr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWalek 2.38 / Snr 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Snr)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077465
Walek2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 89 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back35% 30 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back16% 6 of 38
Snr1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 59 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it73% 44 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWalek3wins
AwaySnr7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSnr leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWalek50%2 of 4
AwaySnr83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Walek4Snr6n = 10Snr took 6 of 10
S2Walek5Snr5n = 10split evenly
S3Walek4Snr6n = 10Snr took 6 of 10
S4Walek1Snr6n = 7Snr took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWalekSnrW − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.637.4−2.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWalekSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 437 vs 121 / 23951%50.6%223 / 437 vs 121 / 239Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrWalek 2.38/Snr 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 08:30A. Walek—118591J. Snr—91111113
LApr 11 · 21:30A. Walek—10118111J. Snr—12811133
LApr 11 · 19:00A. Walek—1111391J. Snr—81311113
WApr 1 · 07:30A. Walek—1511113J. Snr—13680
LMar 31 · 06:00A. Walek—711581J. Snr—11511113
LMar 17 · 13:00A. Walek—6970J. Snr—1111113
WMar 16 · 15:30A. Walek—1211113J. Snr—10550
LMar 13 · 16:00A. Walek—681121J. Snr—11117113
WMar 8 · 19:30A. Walek—761111113J. Snr—11114892
LDec 23 · 09:30A. Walek—11117131J. Snr—13511153
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442WSep 5 · 07:00A. Walek2.10121112113D. Heczko1.671481071
J. Snr10
WSep 5 · 09:29D. Heczko1.57139281J. Snr2.25111111113WSep 5 · 07:30J. Snr1.83811115113L. Martinak1.8311941162LSep 5 · 06:30D. Heczko1.6771511113J. Snr2.101113971LSep 1 · 09:00L. Martinak1.9181214113J. Snr1.8011101271LSep 1 · 08:30J. Cabak1.831111143J. Snr1.8375120WSep 1 · 07:30J. Snr1.8011112113L. Martinak1.91691171LSep 1 · 06:30S. Byrtus2.001111113J. Snr1.738770LJul 31 · 21:00R. Skacelik2.00114211113J. Snr1.7351111792LJul 31 · 20:00J. Snr1.509121791T. Petrek2.50111019113LJul 31 · 19:30R. Skacelik2.1011117113J. Snr1.67851191
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