TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12405248
Played Aug 12Finished
Dalimil Machander
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210113911911113
Jan Stoch
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Stoch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Jan Stoch below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 90 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Jan Stoch at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 3–4 Jan Stoch Dalimil Machander has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:08What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Stoch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1573 vs Stoch 1533
Machander
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 40% vs Stoch 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 50% vs Stoch 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander -1 · Stoch -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stoch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoch form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 1.83 / Stoch 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stoch)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12405248
Machander1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Stoch1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMachander3wins
AwayStoch4wins
6 of 7 to a deciderStoch leads 4–3, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachander33.3%1 of 3
AwayStoch50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander3Stoch4n = 7Stoch took 4 of 7
S2Machander4Stoch3n = 7Machander took 4 of 7
S3Machander3Stoch4n = 7Stoch took 4 of 7
S4Machander5Stoch2n = 7Machander took 5 of 7
S5Machander2Stoch4n = 6Stoch took 4 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away457%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMachanderStochM − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match47.647.4+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderStochBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 313 vs 46 / 11147.6%41.4%149 / 313 vs 46 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StochMachander 1.83/Stoch 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machander won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 13 · 17:30D. Machander—11117113J. Stoch—861181
LJul 13 · 14:00D. Machander—158111182J. Stoch—171177113
LJun 22 · 14:00D. Machander—611911132J. Stoch—118117153
LMay 12 · 17:29D. Machander—121161192J. Stoch—1091113113
WMay 12 · 14:30D. Machander—881111113J. Stoch—11119982
LApr 28 · 14:30D. Machander—11791172J. Stoch—811115113
WJan 16 · 09:30D. Machander—811116113J. Stoch—11971182
D. Machander10
LAug 31 · 09:28D. Machander1.8312971152D. Heczko1.831011119113LAug 31 · 08:30D. Langer1.73117711193D. Machander2.00911116172WAug 31 · 07:30D. Machander2.2511119113S. Byrtus1.57591121WAug 31 · 06:30D. Heczko1.736680D. Machander2.001111113LAug 30 · 21:29S. Byrtus1.57611117123D. Machander2.25114911102WAug 30 · 20:30D. Machander1.6111811113V. Zidek2.20911871WAug 30 · 19:00D. Machander1.911111113A. Walek1.807790LAug 30 · 18:00S. Byrtus1.671111113D. Machander2.108970LAug 30 · 13:14D. Langer1.98143115113D. Machander1.73121191142WAug 30 · 12:00D. Machander1.911111113D. Langer1.805560
J. Stoch10
LSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113LSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 15:30J. Stoch1.91111149113L. Martinak1.8055111142WSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113LAug 12 · 17:00J. Stoch1.83711751R. Vavrecka1.8311511113LAug 12 · 15:00R. Vavrecka2.0081111113J. Stoch1.73118961WAug 12 · 14:30J. Stoch1.801111113V. Adamczyk1.914530WJul 16 · 17:02A. Walek1.731041431J. Stoch2.00121112113LJul 16 · 16:00J. Stoch2.20121311782A. Walek1.611015911113LJul 16 · 15:30S. Byrtus2.3811117113J. Stoch1.53871191
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