TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059656
Played Sep 2Finished
Jaroslav Schwan
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118114––––
Jan Stoch
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:13 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Jan Stoch below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 52 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 68.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 4–0 Jan Stoch Jan Stoch has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Schwan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Schwan
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1594 vs Stoch 1549
Schwan
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 60% vs Stoch 40%
Schwan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 70% vs Stoch 40%
Schwan
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan +1 · Stoch +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Schwan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schwan form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 1.36 / Stoch 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Schwan)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059656
Schwan1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 45 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Stoch3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 14 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSchwan4wins
AwayStoch0wins
Schwan leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan100%4 of 4
AwayStochn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan4Stoch0n = 4Schwan took 4 of 4
S2Schwan3Stoch1n = 4Schwan took 3 of 4
S3Schwan3Stoch1n = 4Schwan took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSchwanStochSchwan − StochBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match38.027.8+10.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanStochBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 256 vs 42 / 10447.3%40.4%121 / 256 vs 42 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanSchwan 1.36/Stoch 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WNov 25 · 15:00J. Schwan—1112113J. Stoch—81060
WOct 8 · 17:08J. Schwan—11117113J. Stoch—861161
WOct 8 · 14:30J. Schwan—111211113J. Stoch—714821
WSep 23 · 14:30J. Schwan—1111113J. Stoch—8980
J. Schwan10
LSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky3.401312113J. Schwan1.30111080LSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730LSep 6 · 15:00D. Langer1.9114511113J. Schwan1.801211561LSep 6 · 14:30J. Schwan1.2811870J. Levicky3.501311113LSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:00L. Martinak1.8341111113J. Schwan1.83116691LAug 25 · 21:28J. Schwan1.50118571D. Langer2.5051111113WAug 25 · 20:30J. Schwan2.00411126113R. Vavrecka1.73115101162WAug 25 · 19:00J. Schwan1.501119123D. Langer2.50917100
J. Stoch10
LSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113WSep 2 · 15:30J. Stoch1.91111149113L. Martinak1.8055111142WSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113LAug 12 · 17:00J. Stoch1.83711751R. Vavrecka1.8311511113LAug 12 · 16:00D. Machander1.83121199113J. Stoch1.83103111132LAug 12 · 15:00R. Vavrecka2.0081111113J. Stoch1.73118961WAug 12 · 14:30J. Stoch1.801111113V. Adamczyk1.914530WJul 16 · 17:02A. Walek1.731041431J. Stoch2.00121112113LJul 16 · 16:00J. Stoch2.20121311782A. Walek1.611015911113LJul 16 · 15:30S. Byrtus2.3811117113J. Stoch1.53871191
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