TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083420
Played Sep 6Finished
Daniel Langer
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412511115116––
Jaroslav Schwan
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Langer to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Langer above · Jaroslav Schwan below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Daniel Langer at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Langer 1–2 Jaroslav Schwan Daniel Langer has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Schwan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1626 vs Schwan 1585
Langer
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 60% vs Schwan 40%
Langer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 60% vs Schwan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +3 · Schwan -2
Langer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schwan) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schwan form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 1.91 / Schwan 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Schwan)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083420
Langer1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 15 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back37% 7 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Schwan1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 45 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLanger1wins
AwaySchwan2wins
Schwan leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLangern = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySchwan66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer0Schwan3n = 3Schwan took 3 of 3
S2Langer1Schwan2n = 3Schwan took 2 of 3
S3Langer1Schwan2n = 3Schwan took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricLangerSchwanL − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match31.335.7−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerSchwanBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 144 vs 122 / 25968.1%47.1%98 / 144 vs 122 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanLanger 1.91/Schwan 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 25 · 21:28D. Langer—51111113J. Schwan—118571
LAug 25 · 19:00D. Langer—917100J. Schwan—1119123
LJul 25 · 18:30D. Langer—64100J. Schwan—1111123
D. Langer10
LSep 6 · 17:29D. Langer1.8016711972R. Skacelik1.911411911113WSep 6 · 16:30D. Langer1.67111138113J. Levicky2.1031111142WSep 6 · 14:00R. Skacelik1.6741171162D. Langer2.10115116113WSep 5 · 13:04D. Heczko3.257240D. Langer1.331111113WSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972LSep 5 · 11:00D. Langer1.8016911562D. Heczko1.911411711113LSep 5 · 10:00M. Bereiter1.5315118113D. Langer2.381321161WSep 2 · 17:30A. Walek1.61115581D. Langer2.0561111113LSep 2 · 16:30A. Walek1.7311911113D. Langer2.00711971WSep 2 · 15:30D. Langer1.91117911113D. Heczko1.8081111482
J. Schwan10
LSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky3.401312113J. Schwan1.30111080LSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730LSep 6 · 14:30J. Schwan1.2811870J. Levicky3.501311113LSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:00L. Martinak1.8341111113J. Schwan1.83116691LAug 25 · 21:28J. Schwan1.50118571D. Langer2.5051111113WAug 25 · 20:30J. Schwan2.00411126113R. Vavrecka1.73115101162WAug 25 · 19:00J. Schwan1.501119123D. Langer2.50917100
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