TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083117
Played Sep 6Finished
Richard Skacelik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117113––––
Jaroslav Schwan
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRichard Skacelik above · Jaroslav Schwan below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-3
Point 54 set 3, 9-3 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 54.0%
54 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Richard Skacelik 17–20 Jaroslav Schwan Richard Skacelik has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Schwan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Schwan
Wrong
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skacelik 1673 vs Schwan 1520
Skacelik
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skacelik 40% vs Schwan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skacelik 40% vs Schwan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skacelik +1 · Schwan -3
Schwan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skacelik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schwan form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkacelik 1.83 / Schwan 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skacelik)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083117
Skacelik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Schwan1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkacelik5wins
AwaySchwan5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkacelik83.3%5 of 6
AwaySchwan100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skacelik6Schwan4n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S2Skacelik5Schwan5n = 10split evenly
S3Skacelik6Schwan4n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S4Skacelik3Schwan4n = 7Schwan took 4 of 7
S5Skacelik2Schwan3n = 5Schwan took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkacelikSchwanSkacelik − SchwanBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.8+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkacelikSchwanBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 433 vs 122 / 26247.6%46.6%206 / 433 vs 122 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikSkacelik 1.83/Schwan 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skacelik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik—1311113J. Schwan—11730
LSep 2 · 15:00R. Skacelik—1195111J. Schwan—81111133
WJun 25 · 12:58R. Skacelik—1181113113J. Schwan—81171522
LJun 25 · 10:00R. Skacelik—87131182J. Schwan—1111115113
LMay 21 · 13:30R. Skacelik—9950J. Schwan—1111113
LMay 21 · 11:00R. Skacelik—94111182J. Schwan—111135113
WMay 20 · 07:00R. Skacelik—111167113J. Schwan—56111182
WMay 4 · 07:00R. Skacelik—1111113J. Schwan—9590
WMay 1 · 18:30R. Skacelik—11115113J. Schwan—971181
LApr 30 · 09:00R. Skacelik—711121092J. Schwan—1151012113
R. Skacelik10
WSep 6 · 17:29D. Langer1.8016711972R. Skacelik1.911411911113WSep 6 · 15:30J. Levicky2.25115861R. Skacelik1.5761111113LSep 6 · 14:00R. Skacelik1.6741171162D. Langer2.10115116113WSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113LSep 2 · 16:00L. Martinak2.0011111113R. Skacelik1.73911881LSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113LAug 30 · 17:29D. Heczko2.25111011143R. Skacelik1.579124121WAug 30 · 16:30R. Skacelik1.50111210113V. Zidek2.502101251WAug 30 · 15:00R. Skacelik1.6711119113D. Heczko2.10391121
J. Schwan10
LSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky3.401312113J. Schwan1.30111080LSep 6 · 15:00D. Langer1.9114511113J. Schwan1.801211561LSep 6 · 14:30J. Schwan1.2811870J. Levicky3.501311113LSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:00L. Martinak1.8341111113J. Schwan1.83116691LAug 25 · 21:28J. Schwan1.50118571D. Langer2.5051111113WAug 25 · 20:30J. Schwan2.00411126113R. Vavrecka1.73115101162WAug 25 · 19:00J. Schwan1.501119123D. Langer2.50917100
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