TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059556
Played Sep 2Finished
Jaroslav Schwan
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111191151311––
Richard Skacelik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Richard Skacelik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 55.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 19–16 Richard Skacelik Richard Skacelik has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skacelik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-16 in 35
Schwan
Correct
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1580 vs Skacelik 1650
Skacelik
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 60% vs Skacelik 40%
Schwan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 60% vs Skacelik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan -2 · Skacelik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skacelik) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skacelik form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 1.83 / Skacelik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skacelik)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059556
Schwan1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Skacelik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchwan4wins
AwaySkacelik6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSkacelik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan80%4 of 5
AwaySkacelik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan5Skacelik5n = 10split evenly
S2Schwan4Skacelik6n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S3Schwan4Skacelik6n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S4Schwan3Skacelik5n = 8Skacelik took 5 of 8
S5Schwan3Skacelik2n = 5Schwan took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchwanSkacelikSchwan − SkacelikBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.641.6−4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanSkacelikBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 255 vs 202 / 42647.1%47.4%120 / 255 vs 202 / 426Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikSchwan 1.83/Skacelik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 25 · 12:58J. Schwan—81171522R. Skacelik—1181113113
WJun 25 · 10:00J. Schwan—1111115113R. Skacelik—87131182
WMay 21 · 13:30J. Schwan—1111113R. Skacelik—9950
WMay 21 · 11:00J. Schwan—111135113R. Skacelik—94111182
LMay 20 · 07:00J. Schwan—56111182R. Skacelik—111167113
LMay 4 · 07:00J. Schwan—9590R. Skacelik—1111113
LMay 1 · 18:30J. Schwan—971181R. Skacelik—11115113
WApr 30 · 09:00J. Schwan—1151012113R. Skacelik—711121092
LApr 30 · 08:00J. Schwan—881121R. Skacelik—11119113
LApr 27 · 10:30J. Schwan—119761R. Skacelik—81111113
J. Schwan10
LSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky3.401312113J. Schwan1.30111080LSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730LSep 6 · 15:00D. Langer1.9114511113J. Schwan1.801211561LSep 6 · 14:30J. Schwan1.2811870J. Levicky3.501311113LSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840LSep 2 · 14:00L. Martinak1.8341111113J. Schwan1.83116691LAug 25 · 21:28J. Schwan1.50118571D. Langer2.5051111113WAug 25 · 20:30J. Schwan2.00411126113R. Vavrecka1.73115101162WAug 25 · 19:00J. Schwan1.501119123D. Langer2.50917100
R. Skacelik10
WSep 6 · 17:29D. Langer1.8016711972R. Skacelik1.911411911113WSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730WSep 6 · 15:30J. Levicky2.25115861R. Skacelik1.5761111113LSep 6 · 14:00R. Skacelik1.6741171162D. Langer2.10115116113WSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113LSep 2 · 16:00L. Martinak2.0011111113R. Skacelik1.73911881LSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113LAug 30 · 17:29D. Heczko2.25111011143R. Skacelik1.579124121WAug 30 · 16:30R. Skacelik1.50111210113V. Zidek2.502101251WAug 30 · 15:00R. Skacelik1.6711119113D. Heczko2.10391121
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