TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042312
Played Aug 30Finished
Richard Skacelik
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113119911112––
David Heczko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:49 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeRichard Skacelik to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Skacelik above · David Heczko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 67 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Richard Skacelik at 57.2%
67 points played in total.
H2H Richard Skacelik 8–4 David Heczko David Heczko has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skacelik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Skacelik
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skacelik 1666 vs Heczko 1655
Skacelik
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skacelik 60% vs Heczko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skacelik 50% vs Heczko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skacelik -2 · Heczko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Skacelik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkacelik 1.67 / Heczko 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Skacelik)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042312
Skacelik1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 69 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it67% 48 of 72
Heczko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 53 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkacelik7wins
AwayHeczko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkacelik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkacelik100%4 of 4
AwayHeczko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skacelik4Heczko6n = 10Heczko took 6 of 10
S2Skacelik8Heczko2n = 10Skacelik took 8 of 10
S3Skacelik6Heczko4n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S4Skacelik3Heczko5n = 8Heczko took 5 of 8
S5Skacelik3Heczko0n = 3Skacelik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkacelikHeczkoS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.4+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkacelikHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 425 vs 253 / 45647.5%55.5%202 / 425 vs 253 / 456Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikSkacelik 1.67/Heczko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skacelik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 17:29R. Skacelik—9124121D. Heczko—111011143
WAug 30 · 15:00R. Skacelik—11119113D. Heczko—391121
LAug 20 · 13:30R. Skacelik—1271191D. Heczko—14117113
WAug 20 · 10:30R. Skacelik—511117113D. Heczko—11541122
WAug 17 · 18:00R. Skacelik—911117113D. Heczko—11791172
WJul 28 · 20:00R. Skacelik—145711143D. Heczko—1211118122
LJul 24 · 11:30R. Skacelik—811861D. Heczko—11911113
WJul 22 · 08:59R. Skacelik—1111113D. Heczko—8790
WJul 22 · 06:00R. Skacelik—51713113D. Heczko—11151191
WJul 2 · 07:30R. Skacelik—1111113D. Heczko—8990
R. Skacelik10
WSep 6 · 17:29D. Langer1.8016711972R. Skacelik1.911411911113WSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730WSep 6 · 15:30J. Levicky2.25115861R. Skacelik1.5761111113LSep 6 · 14:00R. Skacelik1.6741171162D. Langer2.10115116113WSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113LSep 2 · 16:00L. Martinak2.0011111113R. Skacelik1.73911881LSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113LAug 30 · 17:29D. Heczko2.25111011143R. Skacelik1.579124121WAug 30 · 16:30R. Skacelik1.50111210113V. Zidek2.502101251
D. Heczko10
LSep 5 · 13:04D. Heczko3.257240D. Langer1.331111113LSep 5 · 12:00M. Bereiter1.53148811133D. Heczko2.381211118112WSep 5 · 11:00D. Langer1.8016911562D. Heczko1.911411711113LSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113LSep 5 · 09:29D. Heczko1.57139281J. Snr2.25111111113WSep 5 · 08:00L. Martinak1.809980D. Heczko1.911111113LSep 5 · 07:00A. Walek2.10121112113D. Heczko1.671481071WSep 5 · 06:30D. Heczko1.6771511113J. Snr2.101113971WSep 2 · 16:59D. Heczko1.83118711113S. Byrtus1.8381111572WAug 30 · 17:29D. Heczko2.25111011143R. Skacelik1.579124121
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