TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12232033
Played Jul 16Finished
Jan Stoch
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101315119711811
Adrian Walek
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJan Stoch above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 107 set 5, 8-11
107 points played in total.
H2H Jan Stoch 2–4 Adrian Walek Jan Stoch has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Walek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoch form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoch 2.20 / Walek 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Walek)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12232033
Stoch2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 13 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back14% 2 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Walek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 59 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it72% 42 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStoch2wins
AwayWalek4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderWalek leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStoch25%1 of 4
AwayWalekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoch4Walek1n = 5Stoch took 4 of 5
S2Stoch2Walek3n = 5Walek took 3 of 5
S3Stoch2Walek3n = 5Walek took 3 of 5
S4Stoch1Walek4n = 5Walek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricStochWalekS − WBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match43.443.40.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStochWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 112 vs 162 / 32242.9%50.3%48 / 112 vs 162 / 322Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WalekStoch 2.20/Walek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Walek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Walek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 16 · 16:00J. Stoch—121311782A. Walek—1015911113
LJun 22 · 17:30J. Stoch—11610141A. Walek—91112163
WJun 22 · 15:30J. Stoch—9111110113A. Walek—11671252
LJun 17 · 16:30J. Stoch—115791A. Walek—81111113
WNov 25 · 17:30J. Stoch—11118113A. Walek—871151
J. Stoch10
LSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113LSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 15:30J. Stoch1.91111149113L. Martinak1.8055111142WSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113LAug 12 · 17:00J. Stoch1.83711751R. Vavrecka1.8311511113LAug 12 · 16:00D. Machander1.83121199113J. Stoch1.83103111132LAug 12 · 15:00R. Vavrecka2.0081111113J. Stoch1.73118961WAug 12 · 14:30J. Stoch1.801111113V. Adamczyk1.914530WJul 16 · 17:02A. Walek1.731041431J. Stoch2.00121112113LJul 16 · 15:30S. Byrtus2.3811117113J. Stoch1.53871191
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LJul 16 · 17:02A. Walek1.731041431J. Stoch2.00121112113
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