TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042165
Played Aug 30Finished
Dalimil Machander
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117119––––
Adrian Walek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:15 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeAdrian Walek to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Adrian Walek at 57.4%
56 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 17–18 Adrian Walek Dalimil Machander has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Walek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-18 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1524 vs Walek 1634
Walek
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 20% vs Walek 60%
Walek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 10% vs Walek 60%
Walek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander -2 · Walek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Walek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machander form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 1.91 / Walek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Walek)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042165
Machander1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 75 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back35% 35 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back17% 9 of 54
Walek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite48% won 71 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it66% 51 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachander6wins
AwayWalek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMachander leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachander100%4 of 4
AwayWalek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S2Machander3Walek7n = 10Walek took 7 of 10
S3Machander7Walek3n = 10Machander took 7 of 10
S4Machander6Walek3n = 9Machander took 6 of 9
S5Machander3Walek1n = 4Machander took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachanderWalekM − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.739.0+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 336 vs 219 / 43146.4%50.8%156 / 336 vs 219 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WalekMachander 1.91/Walek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Walek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Machander won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 09:30D. Machander—11813113A. Walek—7111131
WAug 19 · 06:00D. Machander—1311911113A. Walek—15911522
LAug 6 · 08:30D. Machander—911101182A. Walek—115129113
LAug 4 · 21:00D. Machander—841591A. Walek—111113113
WAug 4 · 19:00D. Machander—11911113A. Walek—711821
WJul 22 · 09:29D. Machander—691111113A. Walek—11115972
LJul 22 · 06:30D. Machander—481191A. Walek—11113113
WJul 19 · 10:00D. Machander—1211113A. Walek—10690
LJul 12 · 17:04D. Machander—9711101A. Walek—11113123
WJul 12 · 15:30D. Machander—128611143A. Walek—1011119122
D. Machander10
LAug 31 · 09:28D. Machander1.8312971152D. Heczko1.831011119113LAug 31 · 08:30D. Langer1.73117711193D. Machander2.00911116172WAug 31 · 07:30D. Machander2.2511119113S. Byrtus1.57591121WAug 31 · 06:30D. Heczko1.736680D. Machander2.001111113LAug 30 · 21:29S. Byrtus1.57611117123D. Machander2.25114911102WAug 30 · 20:30D. Machander1.6111811113V. Zidek2.20911871LAug 30 · 18:00S. Byrtus1.671111113D. Machander2.108970LAug 30 · 13:14D. Langer1.98143115113D. Machander1.73121191142WAug 30 · 12:00D. Machander1.911111113D. Langer1.805560LAug 30 · 11:30M. Heczko2.001111113D. Machander1.737780
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:30A. Walek2.38118591J. Snr1.5391111113
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