TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13057935
Played Sep 1Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911115116911711
Filip Cernota
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Cernota below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Martin Stusek at 61.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 66–59 Filip Cernota Filip Cernota has won 59 of their 125 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:23What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cernota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-59 in 125
Stusek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1743 vs Cernota 1624
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 80% vs Cernota 20%
Stusek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 50% vs Cernota 20%
Stusek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +3 · Cernota -2
Stusek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernota) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.91 / Cernota 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cernota)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13057935
Stusek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 82 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back15% 13 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Cernota1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 15 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek6wins
AwayCernota4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek83.3%5 of 6
AwayCernota75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Cernota4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek5Cernota5n = 10split evenly
S3Stusek3Cernota7n = 10Cernota took 7 of 10
S4Stusek4Cernota5n = 9Cernota took 5 of 9
S5Stusek4Cernota1n = 5Stusek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekCernotaS − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.641.7−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekCernotaBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 681 vs 103 / 19046.8%54.2%319 / 681 vs 103 / 190Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.840.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaStusek 1.91/Cernota 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cernota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek—1111129113F. Cernota—39141142
WAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek—8101112113F. Cernota—111291062
WAug 11 · 22:05M. Stusek—11127113F. Cernota—9101181
LAug 11 · 18:55M. Stusek—88130F. Cernota—1111153
WAug 7 · 19:20M. Stusek—118119113F. Cernota—41161172
LMay 8 · 08:25M. Stusek—511361F. Cernota—11911113
WMay 5 · 18:55M. Stusek—111359123F. Cernota—6111111102
LMay 3 · 06:55M. Stusek—112111132F. Cernota—131125113
LApr 9 · 22:30M. Stusek—116921F. Cernota—31111113
WApr 9 · 18:55M. Stusek—11138173F. Cernota—81111151
M. Stusek10
WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113WSep 4 · 18:50M. Stusek2.63111175113J. Zlamal1.4496111162LSep 1 · 21:58M. Stusek2.2099110T. Vorisek1.611111133WSep 1 · 20:55M. Stusek2.1011811113T. Vorisek1.67811991
F. Cernota10
WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101LAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek2.388101112113F. Cernota1.53111291062LAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy2.10101111113F. Cernota1.67125591WAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.25116461F. Cernota1.5751111113LAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota2.00111111792J. Zlamal1.73139411113
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