TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13001672
Played Aug 24Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81110121191210116
Filip Cernota
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Cernota below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 100 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Martin Stusek at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 65–59 Filip Cernota Filip Cernota has won 59 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:58What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cernota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
65-59 in 124
Stusek
Correct
gap of 6 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1653 vs Cernota 1645
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 20% vs Cernota 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 40% vs Cernota 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -2 · Cernota -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cernota) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 2.38 / Cernota 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Cernota)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13001672
Stusek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 78 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 58
Cernota1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 18 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek6wins
AwayCernota4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek83.3%5 of 6
AwayCernota75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Cernota4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek5Cernota5n = 10split evenly
S3Stusek3Cernota7n = 10Cernota took 7 of 10
S4Stusek4Cernota5n = 9Cernota took 5 of 9
S5Stusek4Cernota1n = 5Stusek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekCernotaS − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.142.1−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekCernotaBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 679 vs 105 / 19747%53.3%319 / 679 vs 105 / 197Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.040.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaStusek 2.38/Cernota 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek—8101112113F. Cernota—111291062
WAug 11 · 22:05M. Stusek—11127113F. Cernota—9101181
LAug 11 · 18:55M. Stusek—88130F. Cernota—1111153
WAug 7 · 19:20M. Stusek—118119113F. Cernota—41161172
LMay 8 · 08:25M. Stusek—511361F. Cernota—11911113
WMay 5 · 18:55M. Stusek—111359123F. Cernota—6111111102
LMay 3 · 06:55M. Stusek—112111132F. Cernota—131125113
LApr 9 · 22:30M. Stusek—116921F. Cernota—31111113
WApr 9 · 18:55M. Stusek—11138173F. Cernota—81111151
WApr 2 · 22:30M. Stusek—1111124113F. Cernota—95141162
M. Stusek10
WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113WSep 4 · 18:50M. Stusek2.63111175113J. Zlamal1.4496111162LSep 1 · 21:58M. Stusek2.2099110T. Vorisek1.611111133WSep 1 · 20:55M. Stusek2.1011811113T. Vorisek1.67811991
F. Cernota10
WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101LAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy2.10101111113F. Cernota1.67125591WAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.25116461F. Cernota1.5751111113LAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota2.00111111792J. Zlamal1.73139411113
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