TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058328
Played Sep 1Finished
Filip Cernota
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711115117114––
Tomas Vorisek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:22 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeFilip Cernota to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Cernota above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 67 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Filip Cernota at 62.4%
67 points played in total.
H2H Filip Cernota 105–46 Tomas Vorisek Tomas Vorisek has won 46 of their 151 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:22What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cernota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
105-46 in 151
Cernota
Correct
gap of 59 in 151, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernota 1638 vs Vorisek 1872
Vorisek
Wrong
both rated, 233 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernota 40% vs Vorisek 80%
Vorisek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernota 30% vs Vorisek 90%
Vorisek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernota +1 · Vorisek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernota) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernota 1.73 / Vorisek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cernota)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13058328
Cernota1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 15 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Vorisek2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 89 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernota5wins
AwayVorisek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernota50%3 of 6
AwayVorisek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernota6Vorisek4n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10
S2Cernota4Vorisek6n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S3Cernota8Vorisek2n = 10Cernota took 8 of 10
S4Cernota6Vorisek2n = 8Cernota took 6 of 8
S5Cernota0Vorisek4n = 4Vorisek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernotaVorisekC − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.540.2+2.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernotaVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 190 vs 416 / 80654.7%51.6%104 / 190 vs 416 / 806Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaCernota 1.73/Vorisek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cernota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 21:25F. Cernota—21115111T. Vorisek—111313133
WAug 17 · 21:25F. Cernota—51111113T. Vorisek—116461
LAug 11 · 20:25F. Cernota—111041182T. Vorisek—812115113
LAug 7 · 18:20F. Cernota—11961472T. Vorisek—6111112113
WMay 8 · 10:28F. Cernota—1111113T. Vorisek—6780
LMay 8 · 06:55F. Cernota—1041112112T. Vorisek—1211910133
LMay 5 · 20:25F. Cernota—119111692T. Vorisek—911818113
WMay 3 · 10:35F. Cernota—11712113T. Vorisek—9111071
WMay 3 · 08:25F. Cernota—1114113T. Vorisek—71270
WApr 9 · 21:25F. Cernota—101111113T. Vorisek—127751
F. Cernota10
WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101LAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek2.388101112113F. Cernota1.53111291062LAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy2.10101111113F. Cernota1.67125591WAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.25116461F. Cernota1.5751111113LAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota2.00111111792J. Zlamal1.73139411113
T. Vorisek10
LSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113WSep 6 · 14:20D. Jicha1.838125111T. Vorisek1.83111011133LSep 4 · 21:50J. Zlamal1.801211113T. Vorisek1.9110920WSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070LSep 4 · 19:20T. Vorisek2.204950J. Zlamal1.611111113WSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182WAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111LAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.25116461F. Cernota1.5751111113
Upcoming Matches
F. Cernota
Nothing scheduled
T. Vorisek1 of 1 neutral
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