Filip Cernota vs Jaromir Zlamal 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13001308

Played Aug 24Finished

Filip Cernota

Home

2.00

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1181178111210––

Jaromir Zlamal

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:59 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%

Graded at full time

Jaromir Zlamal to win

54.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingFilip Cernota above · Jaromir Zlamal below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 12-10

Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Jaromir Zlamal at 54.7%

78 points played in total.

H2H Filip Cernota 44–55 Jaromir Zlamal Filip Cernota has won 44 of their 99 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4SplitHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 09:59

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Zlamal

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

44-55 in 99

Zlamal

Wrong

gap of 11 in 99, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Cernota 1634 vs Zlamal 1823

Zlamal

Wrong

both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Cernota 20% vs Zlamal 60%

Zlamal

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Cernota 30% vs Zlamal 70%

Zlamal

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Cernota -2 · Zlamal +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Zlamal)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Cernota form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsCernota 2.00 / Zlamal 1.73

Signal prob.45% / 55%

Edge (Zlamal)+1.0pp

TT Cup · #13001308

Cernota2.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog53% won 10 of 19

Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10

Zlamal1.73

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite61% won 81 of 132

Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45

Up 1–0, closes it86% 61 of 71

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeCernota6wins

AwayZlamal4wins

1 of 10 to a deciderCernota leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeCernota100%6 of 6

AwayZlamal100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Cernota6Zlamal4n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10

S2Cernota6Zlamal4n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10

S3Cernota6Zlamal4n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10

S4Cernota4Zlamal3n = 7Cernota took 4 of 7

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricCernotaZlamalC − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.135.5+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricCernotaZlamalBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 195 vs 193 / 31553.3%61.3%104 / 195 vs 193 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.7per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Zlamal

Cernota 2.00/Zlamal 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.7%

Zlamal · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Cernota won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota—111111792J. Zlamal—139411113

LAug 11 · 21:25F. Cernota—1291241J. Zlamal—141110113

WMay 5 · 21:58F. Cernota—1111123J. Zlamal—99100

WMay 5 · 21:25F. Cernota—111110113J. Zlamal—961241

WApr 9 · 20:25F. Cernota—1111113J. Zlamal—7770

WApr 2 · 21:25F. Cernota—11413113J. Zlamal—9111171

LMar 26 · 21:25F. Cernota—811391J. Zlamal—11411113

LMar 25 · 23:25F. Cernota—67100J. Zlamal—1111123

WMar 25 · 21:25F. Cernota—11116143J. Zlamal—9911121

WMar 19 · 22:25F. Cernota—11711113J. Zlamal—911471

F. Cernota10

WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113 LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990 WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741 WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113 LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142 LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111 LAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek2.388101112113F. Cernota1.53111291062 LAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy2.10101111113F. Cernota1.67125591 WAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.25116461F. Cernota1.5751111113 LAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota2.00111111792J. Zlamal1.73139411113

J. Zlamal10

WSep 4 · 21:50J. Zlamal1.801211113T. Vorisek1.9110920 WSep 4 · 20:50J. Zlamal1.4461111113F. Strejc2.63116751 WSep 4 · 19:20T. Vorisek2.204950J. Zlamal1.611111113 LSep 4 · 18:50M. Stusek2.63111175113J. Zlamal1.4496111162 LSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113 WSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990 WSep 1 · 19:55M. Stusek2.503850J. Zlamal1.501111113 LSep 1 · 19:25T. Vorisek2.001114123J. Zlamal1.73912100 WAug 26 · 22:00J. Zlamal3.25611611113T. Vorisek1.3311511762 WAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota2.00111111792J. Zlamal1.73139411113

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