TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13007607
Played Aug 24Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1131191214911114
Filip Cernota
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Cernota below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 95 set 5, 11-4
95 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 65–59 Filip Cernota Filip Cernota has won 59 of their 124 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernota)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.91 / Cernota 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cernota)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13007607
Stusek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 78 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 58
Cernota1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 18 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek6wins
AwayCernota4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek83.3%5 of 6
AwayCernota75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Cernota4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek5Cernota5n = 10split evenly
S3Stusek3Cernota7n = 10Cernota took 7 of 10
S4Stusek4Cernota5n = 9Cernota took 5 of 9
S5Stusek4Cernota1n = 5Stusek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekCernotaS − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.142.1−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekCernotaBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 679 vs 105 / 19747%53.3%319 / 679 vs 105 / 197Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.040.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaStusek 1.91/Cernota 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek—8101112113F. Cernota—111291062
WAug 11 · 22:05M. Stusek—11127113F. Cernota—9101181
LAug 11 · 18:55M. Stusek—88130F. Cernota—1111153
WAug 7 · 19:20M. Stusek—118119113F. Cernota—41161172
LMay 8 · 08:25M. Stusek—511361F. Cernota—11911113
WMay 5 · 18:55M. Stusek—111359123F. Cernota—6111111102
LMay 3 · 06:55M. Stusek—112111132F. Cernota—131125113
LApr 9 · 22:30M. Stusek—116921F. Cernota—31111113
WApr 9 · 18:55M. Stusek—11138173F. Cernota—81111151
WApr 2 · 22:30M. Stusek—1111124113F. Cernota—95141162
M. Stusek10
WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113WSep 4 · 18:50M. Stusek2.63111175113J. Zlamal1.4496111162LSep 1 · 21:58M. Stusek2.2099110T. Vorisek1.611111133WSep 1 · 20:55M. Stusek2.1011811113T. Vorisek1.67811991
F. Cernota10
WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101LAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek2.388101112113F. Cernota1.53111291062LAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy2.10101111113F. Cernota1.67125591WAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.25116461F. Cernota1.5751111113LAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota2.00111111792J. Zlamal1.73139411113
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