TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13001286
Played Aug 24Finished
Tomas Vorisek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112131113151311––
Filip Cernota
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeFilip Cernota to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Vorisek above · Filip Cernota below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 89 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Filip Cernota at 59.8%
89 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vorisek 45–105 Filip Cernota Tomas Vorisek has won 45 of their 150 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cernota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-105 in 150
Cernota
Wrong
gap of 60 in 150, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorisek 1815 vs Cernota 1651
Vorisek
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorisek 40% vs Cernota 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorisek 60% vs Cernota 30%
Vorisek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorisek +1 · Cernota +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Cernota)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorisek 2.10 / Cernota 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Cernota)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13001286
Vorisek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 92 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back25% 23 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Cernota1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 18 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorisek4wins
AwayCernota6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCernota leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorisek25%1 of 4
AwayCernota50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorisek4Cernota6n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10
S2Vorisek5Cernota5n = 10split evenly
S3Vorisek2Cernota8n = 10Cernota took 8 of 10
S4Vorisek1Cernota7n = 8Cernota took 7 of 8
S5Vorisek4Cernota0n = 4Vorisek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorisekCernotaV − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.643.8−4.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorisekCernotaBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 805 vs 105 / 19651.3%53.6%413 / 805 vs 105 / 196Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaVorisek 2.10/Cernota 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.8%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vorisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek—116461F. Cernota—51111113
WAug 11 · 20:25T. Vorisek—812115113F. Cernota—111041182
WAug 7 · 18:20T. Vorisek—6111112113F. Cernota—11961472
LMay 8 · 10:28T. Vorisek—6780F. Cernota—1111113
WMay 8 · 06:55T. Vorisek—1211910133F. Cernota—1041112112
WMay 5 · 20:25T. Vorisek—911818113F. Cernota—119111692
LMay 3 · 10:35T. Vorisek—9111071F. Cernota—11712113
LMay 3 · 08:25T. Vorisek—71270F. Cernota—1114113
LApr 9 · 21:25T. Vorisek—127751F. Cernota—101111113
LApr 2 · 18:55T. Vorisek—12510171F. Cernota—101112193
T. Vorisek10
LSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113WSep 6 · 14:20D. Jicha1.838125111T. Vorisek1.83111011133LSep 4 · 21:50J. Zlamal1.801211113T. Vorisek1.9110920WSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070LSep 4 · 19:20T. Vorisek2.204950J. Zlamal1.611111113WSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182LSep 2 · 18:25T. Vorisek2.02287111092D. Jicha1.652611812113WSep 2 · 17:25D. Jicha1.73115971T. Vorisek2.0061111113
F. Cernota10
WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101LAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek2.388101112113F. Cernota1.53111291062LAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy2.10101111113F. Cernota1.67125591WAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.25116461F. Cernota1.5751111113LAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota2.00111111792J. Zlamal1.73139411113
Upcoming Matches
T. Vorisek1 of 1 neutral
F. Cernota
Nothing scheduled
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