TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12447616
Played Aug 17Finished
Tomas Vorisek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115611411611––
Filip Cernota
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:10 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeFilip Cernota to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Vorisek above · Filip Cernota below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 65 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Filip Cernota at 64.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vorisek 45–104 Filip Cernota Tomas Vorisek has won 45 of their 149 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:10What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cernota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-104 in 149
Cernota
Correct
gap of 59 in 149, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorisek 1820 vs Cernota 1650
Vorisek
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorisek 80% vs Cernota 20%
Vorisek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorisek 80% vs Cernota 30%
Vorisek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorisek +3 · Cernota +1
Vorisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Cernota) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorisek 2.25 / Cernota 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Cernota)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12447616
Vorisek2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 92 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back25% 23 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Cernota1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 18 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorisek5wins
AwayCernota5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorisek50%2 of 4
AwayCernota50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorisek4Cernota6n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10
S2Vorisek6Cernota4n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S3Vorisek3Cernota7n = 10Cernota took 7 of 10
S4Vorisek1Cernota6n = 7Cernota took 6 of 7
S5Vorisek4Cernota0n = 4Vorisek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorisekCernotaV − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.242.6−2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorisekCernotaBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 805 vs 109 / 20051.2%54.5%412 / 805 vs 109 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaVorisek 2.25/Cernota 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cernota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 20:25T. Vorisek—812115113F. Cernota—111041182
WAug 7 · 18:20T. Vorisek—6111112113F. Cernota—11961472
LMay 8 · 10:28T. Vorisek—6780F. Cernota—1111113
WMay 8 · 06:55T. Vorisek—1211910133F. Cernota—1041112112
WMay 5 · 20:25T. Vorisek—911818113F. Cernota—119111692
LMay 3 · 10:35T. Vorisek—9111071F. Cernota—11712113
LMay 3 · 08:25T. Vorisek—71270F. Cernota—1114113
LApr 9 · 21:25T. Vorisek—127751F. Cernota—101111113
LApr 2 · 18:55T. Vorisek—12510171F. Cernota—101112193
WMar 26 · 22:25T. Vorisek—1111113F. Cernota—8990
T. Vorisek10
LSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113WSep 6 · 14:20D. Jicha1.838125111T. Vorisek1.83111011133LSep 4 · 21:50J. Zlamal1.801211113T. Vorisek1.9110920WSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070LSep 4 · 19:20T. Vorisek2.204950J. Zlamal1.611111113WSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182LSep 2 · 18:25T. Vorisek2.02287111092D. Jicha1.652611812113WSep 2 · 17:25D. Jicha1.73115971T. Vorisek2.0061111113
F. Cernota10
WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101LAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek2.388101112113F. Cernota1.53111291062LAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy2.10101111113F. Cernota1.67125591LAug 17 · 20:25F. Cernota2.00111111792J. Zlamal1.73139411113
Upcoming Matches
T. Vorisek1 of 1 neutral
F. Cernota
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