TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13057489
Played Sep 1Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.69
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111161210811116
Michal Moravec
Away
1.96
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 56.4%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 16–14 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:53What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.69 (54%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1628 vs Moravec 1456
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 60% vs Moravec 20%
Krupnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 60% vs Moravec 10%
Krupnik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +2 · Moravec -4
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.69 / Moravec 1.96
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Krupnik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13057489
Krupnik1.69
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 150 of 274
Up 2–0, closes it96% 67 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it72% 106 of 147
Moravec1.96
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 48 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back28% 18 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik50%2 of 4
AwayMoravec50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik7Moravec3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S3Krupnik5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S4Krupnik5Moravec4n = 9Krupnik took 5 of 9
S5Krupnik1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikMoravecK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.138.9+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 832 vs 182 / 36951.3%49.3%427 / 832 vs 182 / 369Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.69/Moravec 1.96
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik—1114113M. Moravec—31280
WSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik—811128113M. Moravec—116101162
WAug 29 · 17:00J. Krupnik—11111113M. Moravec—118771
WAug 29 · 14:15J. Krupnik—31113113M. Moravec—1181191
LJul 27 · 11:40J. Krupnik—119891M. Moravec—51111113
LJul 22 · 11:40J. Krupnik—11891182M. Moravec—911115113
LJul 1 · 12:45J. Krupnik—9121181M. Moravec—111013113
LJul 1 · 11:40J. Krupnik—4116101M. Moravec—11311123
LJun 15 · 13:05J. Krupnik—107111182M. Moravec—121177113
WJun 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik—11127113M. Moravec—6101181
J. Krupnik10
WSep 8 · 21:15D. Skulina1.7357110J. Krupnik2.001111133WSep 8 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.531111113A. Cizek2.385970LSep 8 · 18:45D. Skulina1.801211143J. Krupnik1.91104120WSep 8 · 18:15J. Lisztwan1.831061151J. Krupnik1.8312119113WSep 7 · 20:45R. Sedlacek1.8311690J. Krupnik1.831311113LSep 7 · 19:45D. Skulina1.801111113J. Krupnik1.917950LSep 7 · 19:15R. Sedlacek1.91121176123J. Krupnik1.801061111102WSep 7 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.73915115113J. Travnicek2.00111391162WSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261LSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152
M. Moravec10
WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100LSep 1 · 07:15I. Heuman1.64611911113M. Moravec2.0411711562LSep 1 · 06:15M. Moravec1.981081191B. Mrowetz1.7312118113LAug 31 · 12:35M. Moravec1.915590T. Krenek1.801111113LAug 31 · 12:10M. Moravec1.836980R. Benes1.831111113WAug 31 · 10:40T. Krenek1.731310131192M. Moravec2.001112157113
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