TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050084
Played Aug 31Finished
Michal Moravec
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911811––––
Radek Benes
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 27–22 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 22 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:13What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-22 in 49
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 5 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1502 vs Benes 1720
Benes
Correct
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 20% vs Benes 100%
Benes
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 20% vs Benes 70%
Benes
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +1 · Benes +5
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.83 / Benes 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13050084
Moravec1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Benes1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec6wins
AwayBenes4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec66.7%4 of 6
AwayBenes50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec6Benes4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Moravec7Benes3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S3Moravec3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Moravec4Benes4n = 8split evenly
S5Moravec2Benes1n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecBenesM − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.1+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 360 vs 477 / 90850%52.5%180 / 360 vs 477 / 908Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesMoravec 1.83/Benes 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 12:45M. Moravec—5141012133R. Benes—11121210112
WAug 3 · 10:15M. Moravec—1111123R. Benes—95100
LJul 28 · 10:10M. Moravec—10990R. Benes—1211113
WJul 27 · 13:20M. Moravec—111549113R. Benes—913111192
WJul 27 · 10:10M. Moravec—13119113R. Benes—1171171
LJul 22 · 13:10M. Moravec—11513892R. Benes—9111111113
LJul 22 · 10:10M. Moravec—1191091R. Benes—81112113
WJul 14 · 10:15M. Moravec—91115113R. Benes—1191381
WJul 13 · 10:15M. Moravec—111110113R. Benes—581261
LJul 9 · 10:10M. Moravec—911981R. Benes—11811113
M. Moravec10
WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100LSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.69811128113M. Moravec1.96116101162LSep 1 · 07:15I. Heuman1.64611911113M. Moravec2.0411711562LSep 1 · 06:15M. Moravec1.981081191B. Mrowetz1.7312118113LAug 31 · 12:35M. Moravec1.915590T. Krenek1.801111113WAug 31 · 10:40T. Krenek1.731310131192M. Moravec2.001112157113
R. Benes10
LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl1.911111113R. Benes1.808950LSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 3 · 08:44R. Benes1.919790T. Krenek1.801111113WSep 3 · 07:45T. Krenek2.00411100R. Benes1.731113123LSep 3 · 07:15B. Mrowetz1.801111113R. Benes1.915860LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes1.83661141D. Jr1.8311119113LSep 2 · 13:15T. Krenek1.91159118113R. Benes1.80131161152WSep 2 · 12:15R. Benes1.8391112113B. Mrowetz1.831161081
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