TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050106
Played Aug 31Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
131110121315117911
Michal Moravec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 112 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
112 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 21–15 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:14What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-15 in 36
Krenek
Wrong
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1610 vs Moravec 1495
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 20% vs Moravec 0%
Krenek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 40% vs Moravec 20%
Krenek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Moravec -5
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Krenek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.73 / Moravec 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Krenek)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13050106
Krenek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 118 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 78 of 103
Moravec2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog45% won 47 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek6wins
AwayMoravec4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek80%4 of 5
AwayMoravec60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S2Krenek5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S3Krenek7Moravec3n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S4Krenek4Moravec3n = 7Krenek took 4 of 7
S5Krenek2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekMoravecK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.639.6+1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 865 vs 179 / 35850.4%50%436 / 865 vs 179 / 358Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.73/Moravec 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 15:40T. Krenek—7111411113M. Moravec—118121392
WJul 13 · 12:15T. Krenek—1111113M. Moravec—5960
WJul 9 · 12:45T. Krenek—1114113M. Moravec—61290
LJul 9 · 12:10T. Krenek—1111115102M. Moravec—913711123
LJun 30 · 10:10T. Krenek—89121192M. Moravec—1111105113
LJun 13 · 15:40T. Krenek—891261M. Moravec—111110113
LJun 9 · 16:10T. Krenek—8590M. Moravec—1111113
WJun 3 · 12:35T. Krenek—131012113M. Moravec—11121081
WJun 3 · 11:10T. Krenek—11114113M. Moravec—581191
WMay 18 · 11:40T. Krenek—811411123M. Moravec—118116102
T. Krenek10
LSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek1.91124581J. Skvrna1.80101111113LSep 8 · 11:40J. Skvrna1.731171011123T. Krenek2.00811129102WSep 8 · 11:10T. Kindl1.831291191T. Krenek1.83101113113WSep 8 · 10:10T. Krenek1.611211113D. Jr2.2010890WSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143LSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 06:40M. Macurak1.911111123T. Krenek1.8097100LSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123
M. Moravec10
WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 08:55B. Mrowetz1.111115123M. Moravec6.00913100LSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.69811128113M. Moravec1.96116101162LSep 1 · 07:15I. Heuman1.64611911113M. Moravec2.0411711562LSep 1 · 06:15M. Moravec1.981081191B. Mrowetz1.7312118113LAug 31 · 12:35M. Moravec1.915590T. Krenek1.801111113LAug 31 · 12:10M. Moravec1.836980R. Benes1.831111113
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