TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058022
Played Sep 1Finished
Bruno Mrowetz
Home
1.11
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11915131210––––
Michal Moravec
Away
6.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:53 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 70 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 59.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 13–11 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:53What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Mrowetz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Mrowetz
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1551 vs Moravec 1456
Mrowetz
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 20% vs Moravec 0%
Mrowetz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 30% vs Moravec 10%
Mrowetz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz -2 · Moravec -5
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Mrowetz) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (0%) is below what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.11 / Moravec 6.00
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Mrowetz)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13058022
Mrowetz1.11
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 66 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 49 of 63
Moravec6.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 48 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz7wins
AwayMoravec3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMrowetz leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz83.3%5 of 6
AwayMoravec50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz6Moravec4n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10
S2Mrowetz7Moravec3n = 10Mrowetz took 7 of 10
S3Mrowetz6Moravec4n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10
S4Mrowetz6Moravec1n = 7Mrowetz took 6 of 7
S5Mrowetz2Moravec3n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzMoravecMrowetz − MoravecBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.439.5+4.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 451 vs 180 / 36449%49.5%221 / 451 vs 180 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzMrowetz 1.11/Moravec 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.2%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrowetz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 06:15B. Mrowetz—12118113M. Moravec—1081191
LAug 22 · 17:19B. Mrowetz—1012711142M. Moravec—1210116163
WAug 22 · 14:10B. Mrowetz—9131111113M. Moravec—111113862
WAug 8 · 11:45B. Mrowetz—1110811113M. Moravec—51211362
WJul 27 · 11:10B. Mrowetz—1116113M. Moravec—81470
WJul 24 · 14:15B. Mrowetz—1111123M. Moravec—99100
LJul 22 · 11:10B. Mrowetz—1091211112M. Moravec—1211106133
WJul 20 · 14:40B. Mrowetz—1211133M. Moravec—106110
WJul 10 · 13:20B. Mrowetz—101111113M. Moravec—129781
LJul 10 · 11:15B. Mrowetz—11411662M. Moravec—811311113
B. Mrowetz10
WSep 7 · 13:10T. Kindl1.968890B. Mrowetz1.701111113LSep 7 · 11:40T. Kindl2.2091112183B. Mrowetz1.6111610161WSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113WSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113
M. Moravec10
WSep 1 · 12:39M. Moravec1.5014311153A. Cizek2.5012112131LSep 1 · 12:10M. Moravec2.007880T. Kindl1.731111113WSep 1 · 10:40A. Cizek2.109710M. Moravec1.671111113LSep 1 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.801114113M. Moravec1.9131280LSep 1 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.69811128113M. Moravec1.96116101162LSep 1 · 07:15I. Heuman1.64611911113M. Moravec2.0411711562LSep 1 · 06:15M. Moravec1.981081191B. Mrowetz1.7312118113LAug 31 · 12:35M. Moravec1.915590T. Krenek1.801111113LAug 31 · 12:10M. Moravec1.836980R. Benes1.831111113WAug 31 · 10:40T. Krenek1.731310131192M. Moravec2.001112157113
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