TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13092784
Played Sep 7Finished
Tomas Kindl
Home
1.96
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811911––––
Bruno Mrowetz
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 8–7 Bruno Mrowetz Bruno Mrowetz has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kindl beat Mrowetz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Mrowetz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kindl 1590 vs Mrowetz 1670
Mrowetz
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kindl 100% vs Mrowetz 40%
Kindl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kindl 80% vs Mrowetz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kindl +5 · Mrowetz -1
Kindl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mrowetz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 1.96 / Mrowetz 1.70
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Mrowetz)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13092784
Kindl1.96
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 53 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Mrowetz1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it79% 57 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKindl6wins
AwayMrowetz4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKindl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl66.7%2 of 3
AwayMrowetz42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl3Mrowetz7n = 10Mrowetz took 7 of 10
S2Kindl6Mrowetz4n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S3Kindl6Mrowetz4n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S4Kindl5Mrowetz2n = 7Kindl took 5 of 7
S5Kindl2Mrowetz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKindlMrowetzK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.241.0−0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 402 vs 242 / 48050.8%50.4%204 / 402 vs 242 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzKindl 1.96/Mrowetz 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mrowetz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 13:10T. Kindl—8890B. Mrowetz—1111113
WSep 7 · 11:40T. Kindl—91112183B. Mrowetz—11610161
WAug 13 · 18:45T. Kindl—1111311133B. Mrowetz—991113112
LAug 1 · 20:38T. Kindl—106100B. Mrowetz—1211123
WAug 1 · 19:40T. Kindl—101111113B. Mrowetz—129981
LJul 17 · 13:10T. Kindl—10121111112B. Mrowetz—121458133
LJul 17 · 09:40T. Kindl—11811762B. Mrowetz—911911113
WJun 29 · 12:50T. Kindl—311611113B. Mrowetz—11911972
WJun 29 · 11:10T. Kindl—11211113B. Mrowetz—1110861
WJun 14 · 11:45T. Kindl—1211113B. Mrowetz—10670
T. Kindl10
WSep 7 · 11:40T. Kindl2.2091112183B. Mrowetz1.6111610161WSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl1.911111113R. Benes1.808950WSep 7 · 09:40T. Kindl2.1012713113D. Jr1.6710111191WSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882LSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113WSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592LSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113
B. Mrowetz10
LSep 7 · 11:40T. Kindl2.2091112183B. Mrowetz1.6111610161WSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113WSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113
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